現役球員入選名人堂可能性 - NBA

Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2016-03-19T11:59

Table of Contents

在Basketball Reference看到現役球員入選名人堂的可能性
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html?redir

排名
1. Kobe Bryant 1.0000
2. Tim Duncan 1.0000
3. LeBron James 1.0000
4. Kevin Garnett 1.0000
5. Dwyane Wade 1.0000
6. Dirk Nowitzki 1.0000
7. Chris Paul 0.9999
8. Paul Pierce 0.9974
9. Chris Bosh 0.9951
10. Kevin Durant 0.9943
11. Dwight Howard 0.9903
12. Carmelo Anthony 0.9510
13. Vince Carter 0.9455
14. Tony Parker 0.9386
15. Pau Gasol 0.9314
16. James Harden 0.7317
17. Amar'e Stoudemi 0.7293
18. Russell Westbro 0.7287
19. Stephen Curry 0.6731
20. Joe Johnson 0.5056　　　

50%以下的球員請點選網址

公式

以Tony Parker 2014年結束為例

Int. -0.20303
Height (in.) 身高(英吋) -0.14203 * 74 = -10.51022
NBA Championships 冠軍 0.80573 * 4 = 3.22292
NBA Leaderboard Points 數據榜得分 0.01594 * 4 = 0.06376
NBA Peak Win Shares 最高Win share 0.41568 * 9.6 = 3.99053
NBA All-Star Game Selections 明星賽 1.02443 * 6 = 6.14658
---------------------------------------------------------------

2.71054
P(HoF election) = 1 / (1 + exp(-(2.71054)))
= 93.8%


以這個公式算下來..
Dwight Howard 也幾乎有99%會進榜的機率?!
甚至連還在壯年的監視器都有73%?!

假設這個比例真的可以決定進入名人堂的機率
那NBA比MLB容易進入名人堂太多了...

--
Tags: NBA

All Comments

Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2016-03-24T06:43
ROSE
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2016-03-25T14:08
CP比包皮高？
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2016-03-29T23:23
CP3有到穩進嗎？....
John avatar
By John
at 2016-04-02T11:11
NBA名人堂比較像澡堂 衣服脫了就能進
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2016-04-06T17:09
Gasol也太低
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2016-04-08T10:46
跑車會比草莓跟BOSH難進嗎 不認為
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2016-04-09T03:35
安東尼 憑什麼
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2016-04-12T08:54
史上最強球員竟然只排名第.....？
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2016-04-16T07:27
這是資源回收吧
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2016-04-20T22:40
瓜瓜雖然不弱 但有這麼高?
Una avatar
By Una
at 2016-04-23T19:32
帕克看來也不怎樣 當個綠葉 還沒安東尼高
George avatar
By George
at 2016-04-24T00:05
Pau Gasol 100%進名人堂
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2016-04-24T04:35
名人堂多了一堆假名人...素質越來越低
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2016-04-28T05:33
CP3也太高了=.=
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2016-04-30T20:03
Curry 100%
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2016-05-02T14:12
為什麼每次看這個Manu都不見，因為是替補？
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2016-05-05T15:31
CP3比KD高確實很怪
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2016-05-09T14:30
Curry穩
Mary avatar
By Mary
at 2016-05-12T20:10
Manu累積數據超難看啊
Poppy avatar
By Poppy
at 2016-05-12T21:23
大概進個五次前三隊就有門票了
Steve avatar
By Steve
at 2016-05-17T18:54
CP3到底強在哪？快艇帶的2266的，史上最被高估的球
員
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2016-05-18T02:46
CP3確實很有機會進名人堂 但是比KD就不合理了
Catherine avatar
By Catherine
at 2016-05-18T11:56
Curry 兩屆MVP+最佳進步獎。你敢嘴？
Emma avatar
By Emma
at 2016-05-20T17:22
11跟17入選原因是????
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2016-05-22T00:31
Manu沒有? 開玩笑逆
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2016-05-25T00:41
Manu穩進的啦 別忘了他還有國際賽成績
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2016-05-29T03:02
DH不夠格吧
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2016-05-29T05:55
manu就替補第六人 拿冠軍 跟Horry機率差不多吧
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2016-05-30T16:42
名人堂越來越好進了
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2016-05-31T13:04
MLB名人堂表示
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2016-06-02T11:55
算法怪怪的 名人堂不只看nba 鬼禿基本上穩進的
Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2016-06-07T09:55
名人堂跟有一半球隊能進季後賽一樣廉價
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2016-06-09T13:56
魔獸？哈哈哈哈哈哈
哈登也不夠格
Andrew avatar
By Andrew
at 2016-06-11T10:57
MANU光是打敗美國隊就穩進了吧
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2016-06-13T02:13
PP穩了吧= =
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2016-06-16T02:42
Lin呢
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2016-06-16T08:45
魔獸 五次第一隊+三次最佳防守成員 本來就該進了
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2016-06-17T10:36
mlb那個是聖人堂 nba真的是好進太多了
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2016-06-18T00:00
前20熱火有四個
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2016-06-22T07:21
木桶伯都進名人堂了，魔獸沒理由不進
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2016-06-27T00:39
沒 manu?
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2016-07-01T20:58
16 17 ..........= =
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2016-07-02T01:25
我只擷取超過50%的啦 後面的請自己點選網址
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2016-07-06T18:15
如果是PTT鄉民堂 姆斯 CP3 DH 都沒資格
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2016-07-08T12:31
名人堂好進? 那是因為你們在見證歷史的一部分卻不
自知 俗稱賤今
Mary avatar
By Mary
at 2016-07-11T20:26
cp3真的是過譽
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2016-07-13T20:10
比MLB好進這是客觀的事實, 誰說名人堂好進?
William avatar
By William
at 2016-07-15T18:47
推fs大的MLB聖人堂 XDDD
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2016-07-18T09:17
TD新人球季就想進名人堂？
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2016-07-20T21:43
CP3有這麼高?
Una avatar
By Una
at 2016-07-21T09:37
沒摸過西冠地板可以高於PP是什麼垃圾排名
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2016-07-21T15:40
pp穩多了 KD也有MVP加持， CP3真的沒那麼高
George avatar
By George
at 2016-07-24T22:48
這名人堂也太廉價
John avatar
By John
at 2016-07-27T16:28
名人堂本來就好進 就算是以前的標準也一樣
Agatha avatar
By Agatha
at 2016-07-29T12:35
雷帝維持個幾年ok的
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2016-07-29T21:38
比起mlb聖人堂相對好進
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2016-08-03T19:56
Ray Allen應該也有機會吧
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2016-08-08T00:15
harden?
Wallis avatar
By Wallis
at 2016-08-09T03:17
NBA本來就算好進了 噓屁啊
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2016-08-13T19:26
保羅有四次第一隊 防守抄截助攻王 奧運冠軍兩次
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2016-08-15T13:21
我不討厭JJ 但是連他都有五成耶 這...
Quintina avatar
By Quintina
at 2016-08-17T12:33
12名是搞笑的? 憑什麼
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2016-08-20T21:44
還有這是籃球名人堂 所以不是只看NBA的成績
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2016-08-21T22:53
CP3這種貨色也能進喔？ 呵呵呵
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2016-08-23T10:34
Ray又不是現役球員 不然也是0.99多的
Dinah avatar
By Dinah
at 2016-08-26T20:15
甜瓜????
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2016-08-30T12:35
豪兒跟瓜瓜這麼高喔?
Aaliyah avatar
By Aaliyah
at 2016-09-01T11:16
還有兩萬分算個一半的保障(因為還是有例外)
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2016-09-05T07:28
甜瓜也22000了 其實再打個幾年 沒進反而說不過去
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2016-09-07T16:19
VC可能靠灌籃就進了吧
Andrew avatar
By Andrew
at 2016-09-11T05:47
CURRY這季能投400的話 也幾乎100%了
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2016-09-11T20:02
NBA的名人堂只要是all star等級就可以進了
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2016-09-15T13:50
反觀MLB幾乎要MVP 賽揚獎等級才行
Valerie avatar
By Valerie
at 2016-09-15T18:46
皇叔那座MVP+幾個全明星+年度隊伍再5年大概就會在榜
上了
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2016-09-16T07:05
Howard沒啥問題吧 當年也是姆斯障礙
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2016-09-16T12:44
鬍子這麼高是???
Suhail Hany avatar
By Suhail Hany
at 2016-09-19T13:41
噓某樓Manu比作Horry 是有事嗎？
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2016-09-20T15:47
Curry 19? 想惹勇迷生氣？
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2016-09-24T16:15
就像上面TP文 CURRY跟勇士的成績再維持三年就是99%+
現在只有19是不會太意外
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2016-09-27T21:12
不用到MVP+總冠軍 但至少前二隊+進分冠決賽
Candice avatar
By Candice
at 2016-09-28T20:49
Howard光靠籃板數據就能進名人堂了
Joseph avatar
By Joseph
at 2016-10-01T13:16
排除上古神獸，生涯場均籃板比魔獸多的只有一個人
Quintina avatar
By Quintina
at 2016-10-04T03:09
Dennis Rodman
Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2016-10-07T14:59
大歐,老穆,歐拉,上將,鄧肯,老巴,KG都沒他多
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2016-10-09T05:28
推MLB聖人堂
Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2016-10-12T05:30
Where is Ginobili?
David avatar
By David
at 2016-10-12T22:04
Bosh??
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2016-10-16T16:06
瓜瓜根本不可能
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2016-10-21T07:51
皇叔會成為第一個拿MVP卻進不了名人堂的嗎?
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2016-10-24T15:57
可愛也100%穩進的
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2016-10-27T18:15
我龜比你咖高
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2016-10-31T04:24
以下開放腦_戰績柯迷崩潰
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2016-11-05T03:16
CP3如果沒被偷MVP應該就是1.00了吧
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2016-11-05T06:09
Curry到今年就喊退休也已經是100%了
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2016-11-06T07:09
皇叔沒希望了吧 根本已經報廢狀態
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2016-11-08T07:06
一堆人不知道cp3到底有多強 只會看鄉民描述
Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2016-11-08T14:11
草莓zzz...
Ursula avatar
By Ursula
at 2016-11-10T23:38
CP3個人數據全面贏過KJohnson KJ都進了 船長憑甚麼
不行 183公分做到全身假動作 抄截王 助攻王 投籃也
不差 也有防守 已經很不簡單了好嗎...
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2016-11-12T06:47
Manu不僅會進nba名人堂，FIBA的也會進…
Hedwig avatar
By Hedwig
at 2016-11-12T14:38
鬼禿不可能不進吧 蝙蝠俠+鋼蛋人就100%了
James avatar
By James
at 2016-11-14T01:29
名人堂如果太多人時，就該再開個菁英棒棒堂之類的
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2016-11-18T01:10
TP 比 Melo 低? 四冠 FMVP 會輸一個零冠的
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2016-11-22T03:12
cp3的進攻進階數據是歷史前15的...
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2016-11-23T09:41
就算是mlb名人堂難度 cp3也能進好不好
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2016-11-26T11:55
ㄧ堆跟風黑球員的，難怪人家都說ptt是反指標 哈
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2016-11-29T19:51
11真的進就好笑了！
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2016-12-02T19:08
7進不去啦
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2016-12-03T17:25
Bosh
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2016-12-06T19:06
西河跟雷帝差距這麼大！？
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2016-12-07T14:04
TP Gasol會進吧
Callum avatar
By Callum
at 2016-12-09T22:43
Harden比Curry高？？ Harden拿過啥？？？？
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2016-12-12T10:41
Manu勒
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2016-12-14T21:52
我真的不懂CP3哪裡過譽了，生涯逼近20/10不夠格?
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2016-12-19T12:06
bosh一直以來都只是Ａ級而已沒到Ｓ吧
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2016-12-20T06:36
CP3 HW12 KD排名根本不合理
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2016-12-23T20:53
感覺NBA的HOF難度跟MLB差好多阿
NBA也太容易 = =
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2016-12-27T17:32
身高...?
Aaliyah avatar
By Aaliyah
at 2016-12-31T05:05
CP3光靠連續好幾季抄截王就幾乎穩了
George avatar
By George
at 2017-01-03T05:32
姚明咧？
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2017-01-04T22:55
早就說了NBA名人堂沒難度有什麼好爭議的
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2017-01-07T13:29
最好草莓獸比姐姐高....
Barb Cronin avatar
By Barb Cronin
at 2017-01-09T18:47
NBA比MLB好進太多
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2017-01-10T03:05
MLB一隊就多少人了....
Hardy avatar
By Hardy
at 2017-01-13T18:00
無腦酸太多了阿 CP3各種成就全被當空氣 可憐
Hardy avatar
By Hardy
at 2017-01-16T06:35
當然阿 你不知道最具指標性的是PTT的歷史評價嗎

Nowitzki如何保養的啊？

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