現役球員,WAR有機會破百的人選 - 美國職棒

Callum avatar
By Callum
at 2023-06-25T19:48

Table of Contents

MLB 生涯累積WAR要達到100+難度很高,傷病會影響出賽時間,
若巔峰期不夠長(退化太快)數據累積緩慢也無法達標。

提供一個比較熟悉的參考對照球員=> 退役不久的強棒Alber Pujols,
職業生涯22年WAR累積剛好跨過100+一些 (累積101.5)。

不考慮意外的傷病風險,單純以目前的WAR累積速度及年紀(也參考年資),

(年齡超過35並且成績已明顯退化者,其實能夠再增加的數據非常少)

新補充: 參考板友熱心推文,新的推測(加括號)並上亮黃色

資料來源:baseball-reference網站
個人主觀
WAR 排序 年齡 列出現役前100 年資 推測達標機會
84.9 1 (31) Mike Trout 13 很高 ()
79.0 2 (35) Clayton Kershaw 16 有機會 (很低)
78.0 3 (40) Justin Verlander 18
76.8 4 (39) Zack Greinke 20
73.0 5 (38) Max Scherzer 16 很低 (0%)

67.2 6 (40) Miguel Cabrera 21
64.8 7 (39) Joey Votto 17
60.8 8 (35) Paul Goldschmidt 13
59.0 9 (39) Cole Hamels 15
58.9 10 (30) Mookie Betts 10 高 (很低)

58.8 11 (37) Evan Longoria 16
53.0 12 (30) Manny Machado 12 (極低)
52.8 13 (32) Nolan Arenado 11
52.4 14 (33) Freddie Freeman 14
48.4 15 (36) Andrew McCutchen 15

46.7 16 (33) Jose Altuve 13
46.5 17 (37) Josh Donaldson 13
46.4 18 (34) Chris Sale 13
46.4 19 (41) Adam Wainwright 18
44.6 20 (35) Jacob deGrom 10

44.4 21 (33) Giancarlo Stanton 14
43.3 22 (30) José Ramírez 11
43.2 23 (30) Bryce Harper 12
42.3 24 (42) Nelson Cruz 19
40.5 25 (28) Carlos Correa 9 有機會 (0%)

40.5 26 (33) Anthony Rizzo 13
39.6 27 (33) Jason Heyward 14
39.4 28 (31) Aaron Judge 8 有機會 (0%)
38.8 29 (29) Francisco Lindor 9 有機會 (0%)
38.7 30 (34) Starling Marte 12

38.1 31 (31) Christian Yelich 11
37.7 32 (32) Marcus Semien 11
37.3 33 (33) Madison Bumgarner 15
36.9 34 (32) Gerrit Cole 11
36.8 35 (30) Xander Bogaerts 11

36.3 36 (37) Johnny Cueto 16
35.9 37 (38) Justin Turner 15
35.2 38 (33) George Springer 10
34.4 39 (33) Kevin Kiermaier 11
34.2 40 (36) Michael Brantley 14

34.0 41 (37) Corey Kluber 13
33.9 42 (37) Carlos Santana 14
33.3 43 (33) Salvador Perez 12
33.2 44 (33) Anthony Rendon 11
32.7 45 (34) Elvis Andrus 15

32.5 46 (29) Alex Bregman 8
32.3 47 (34) Stephen Strasburg 13
31.7 48 (32) J.T. Realmuto 10
30.9 49 (36) José Abreu 10
30.8 50 (30) Aaron Nola 9

30.7 51 (30) Trea Turner 9
30.4 52 (34) DJ LeMahieu 13
30.4 53 (36) Yu Darvish 11
30.3 54 (36) Brandon Crawford 13
29.9 55 (28) Shohei Ohtani 6 有機會 ()

29.7 56 (30) Matt Chapman 7
29.7 57 (36) Lance Lynn 12
29.3 58 (30) Trevor Story 7
28.8 59 (31) Kris Bryant 9
28.8 60 (37) Matt Carpenter 13

28.7 61 (35) J.D. Martinez 13
28.2 62 (35) Brandon Belt 13
27.9 63 (29) Corey Seager 9
27.4 64 (33) Sonny Gray 11
26.8 65 (33) Zack Wheeler 9

26.6 66 (24) Juan Soto 6 有機會
26.5 67 (30) Javier Báez 10
26.4 68 (33) Jean Segura 12
26.4 69 (34) José Quintana 11
24.0 70 (32) Marcus Stroman 9

23.4 71 (29) Matt Olson 8
22.7 72 (29) Ketel Marte 9
22.5 73 (35) AJ Pollock 12
22.3 74 (33) Kyle Hendricks 10
22.2 75 (35) Craig Kimbrel 14

21.7 76 (25) Ronald Acuna Jr. 6 有機會
21.7 77 (32) Kolten Wong 11
21.5 78 (31) Willson Contreras 8
21.5 79 (32) Julio Teheran 12
21.4 80 (36) Carlos Carrasco 14

21.2 81 (32) Kevin Gausman 11
21.0 82 (29) Byron Buxton 9
21.0 83 (32) Marcell Ozuna 11
20.5 84 (35) Kenley Jansen 14
20.4 85 (38) Daniel Murphy 12

20.3 86 (34) Yasmani Grandal 12
20.2 87 (34) Danny Duffy 11
20.1 88 (30) Luis Castillo 7
20.0 89 (38) David Robertson 15
19.9 90 (31) Jonathan Schoop 11

19.8 91 (35) Aroldis Chapman 14
19.7 92 (36) Hyun Jin Ryu 9
19.6 93 (36) Charlie Blackmon 13
19.2 94 (27) Cody Bellinger 7
19.2 95 (35) Alex Cobb 12

19.0 96 (35) Dallas Keuchel 11
18.9 97 (30) Brandon Nimmo 8
18.6 98 (29) Max Fried 7
18.6 99 (33) Eric Hosmer 13
18.6 100 (34) Whit Merrifield 8





生涯WAR領先者,連結如下: (先前排版有問題,提供連結自行參考)
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml



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All Comments

Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2023-06-27T10:54
Judge沒什麼機會吧
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2023-06-29T02:01
木屐應該只是有機會吧?而且我覺得他應該最後80上下的機會
比較大
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2023-06-30T17:08
說個笑話 Carlos Correa有機會
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2023-06-30T07:22
Correa的War值後面怎麼沒有加*
Edith avatar
By Edith
at 2023-07-01T22:29
除非他能完全無傷的打到退休,而且退化程度不能太高,這很
拼喔!
Catherine avatar
By Catherine
at 2023-06-30T07:22
法官也是,光看他的健康程度,感覺就很難
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2023-07-01T22:29
30歲前沒衝上60或70應該都很難啦
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2023-06-30T07:22
有些守位的選手不太可能 看all time就知道
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2023-07-01T22:29
鱒魚這幾年不要痛說不定已經在倒數了qq
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2023-06-30T07:22
WAR 84.9結果一看才31歲,這到底什麼鬼
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2023-07-01T22:29
不過WAR 100+ 整個MLB歷史也不過10個投手跟21個野手達成
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2023-06-30T07:22
30歲時不到WAR沒有累積到50的全部可以去掉了破百的
裡面30歲累積最低的Honus Wagner也有47.5,最高的Ty
Cobb甚至30歲就97.7碾壓所有現役球員
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2023-07-01T22:29
你列的那一些,現階段看起來只有鱒魚有可能達成
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2023-06-30T07:22
下面那個表是出了什麼問題啊= =
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2023-07-01T22:29
破百沒吃藥都是怪物級的球員,甚至Ted Williams 24~
26在當兵還可以在30歲前累積71.5
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2023-06-30T07:22
大聯盟選手的衰退是很可怕的,以Pujols為例,他離開紅雀加
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2023-07-01T22:29
盟天使時,WAR已經累積 86.6 後面又打了十一個球季 生涯
累積也堪堪過100 這還是最後一年回春 才有的
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2023-06-30T07:22
大谷要有機會要看二刀流幾年,或是不二刀流後轉職外野手
還是投手
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2023-07-01T22:29
WAR 8+ 算MVP 球季 100需要最少12個MVP球季
Edith avatar
By Edith
at 2023-06-30T07:22
普神其實扣掉最後一年的話17年開始累積是負的在16年
結束時累積就有到101.4當時才36歲
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2023-07-01T22:29
Mike Trout目前擁有5個MVP球季 跟兩個接近的球季 (7.7 7.
5) 剛好是他拿MVP-1 MVP-2的七個球季
Agatha avatar
By Agatha
at 2023-06-30T07:22
打者最低才是Honus Wagner,剛剛表格忘了開到投手部
分,投手有不少30歲前累積不到40但是生涯後期都很猛
像是巨怪
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2023-07-01T22:29
V中就是30+之後也很猛的例子,30前 40.8 30+ 37.7
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2023-06-30T07:22
Scherzer 30前 31.8 30+ 41.2
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2023-07-01T22:29
老實說連trout都要很拚才有機會
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2023-06-30T07:22
衰退得太慘 war還會減少
Heather avatar
By Heather
at 2023-07-01T22:29
普人在LAA十年才12.8 LAD0 回紅鳥才拉一個2.2重新破百
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2023-06-30T07:22
投手現役這些30後猛的跟破百那些的30後等級還是差有
點大,但還是期待目前老將們可以再突破
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2023-07-01T22:29
下面的姓氏都少了第一個字和空格
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2023-06-30T07:22
下面那個表怎麼看怎麼怪
Ursula avatar
By Ursula
at 2023-07-01T22:29
老實說我覺得Machado也有機會
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2023-06-30T07:22
Linder Correa就...
法官也是沒機會吧...
Edward Lewis avatar
By Edward Lewis
at 2023-07-01T22:29
看下去好像很多人都沒機會
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2023-06-30T07:22
有的老了轉守位就沒機會了
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2023-07-01T22:29
我覺得現役表格可以簡化25歲以下留超過15的,30歲以
下留30+的,接下來每兩歲一個坎,32歲留40+的,34歲
留50+ ……到38歲70+
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2023-06-30T07:22
看起來只有神鱒有機會 大谷就看過30會不會衰退太多
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2023-07-01T22:29
Correa judge Linder很難啦
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2023-06-30T07:22
大谷二刀能保持這幾年水準 算8WAR的話也要再9年 太難了
Ursula avatar
By Ursula
at 2023-07-01T22:29
法官太晚上來,所以目前有點老了,林董近年打擊不夠
猛雖然中線守備很吃香但累積還是不夠快
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2023-06-30T07:22
Correa要平均一年5war ,今年球季結束有沒有3War到不知
道了
Correa現在才1war
Ula avatar
By Ula
at 2023-07-01T22:29
Machado 如果能復活水準都比Correa還有機會
Mary avatar
By Mary
at 2023-06-30T07:22
當代神獸果然不是叫假的....
Donna avatar
By Donna
at 2023-07-01T22:29
神鱒全盛期根本級數跟大家不同吧,根本超人等級
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2023-06-30T07:22
以前有個叫Kiner的,也是靠著6-7年神級表現就進
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2023-07-01T22:29
HOF了,生涯剛好10年,WAR是48
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2023-06-30T07:22
鱒魚幾乎每一季ops+都160以上,其他人能有一兩季到
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2023-07-01T22:29
160就很猛,層
積完全不同
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2023-06-30T07:22
重傷害曾經連8季破170。
Hardy avatar
By Hardy
at 2023-07-01T22:29
至少先破70 再來談有沒有機會
Una avatar
By Una
at 2023-06-30T07:22
小帝士有機會30歲前50~60吧,前提健康啦,他現在24歲war1
7.4,以一年打完war5~6算,有機會在30歲累積到53左右
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2023-07-01T22:29
但就算如此,生涯破百還是太難啦
Hedwig avatar
By Hedwig
at 2023-06-30T07:22
純推華哥
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2023-07-01T22:29
這個難在 打太爛會下降 連 trout 可能都沒多穩
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2023-06-30T07:22
100以上個個都神獸
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2023-07-01T22:29
神獸不一定能100 能100都是神獸
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2023-06-30T07:22
看下來跟藥無關沒進名人堂的最高WAR Rose(79.6)和席琳(79
Rachel avatar
By Rachel
at 2023-07-01T22:29
.5)可以再坐很久
Mary avatar
By Mary
at 2023-06-30T07:22
木屐不好說欸 很多球員都是32.33開始明顯衰退
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2023-07-01T22:29
kiner印象中是受大傷到回不去了吧,不然生涯好像7度
全壘打王
Genevieve avatar
By Genevieve
at 2023-06-30T07:22
Trout不要退化太嚴重應該可以 Kershaw要看能丟到幾歲
大谷二刀累積很快但起步晚了 又是風險比較大的模式
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2023-07-01T22:29
神鱒是一年級就有MVP實力 然後就一直強到現在
真的很誇張
Mary avatar
By Mary
at 2023-06-30T07:22
100太高了 能到的現役沒幾個
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2023-07-01T22:29
這比問誰會進名人堂還嚴苛
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2023-06-30T07:22
大谷要100難度太高了..但是100勝300轟應該可以進名人堂
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2023-07-01T22:29
看表 百年歷史超過100的才32人...
Odelette avatar
By Odelette
at 2023-06-30T07:22
就算連神鳟都很拼吧...不能受傷還要穩定輸出至少3-5年
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2023-07-01T22:29
大谷那個砍半我都覺得能進名人堂
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2023-06-30T07:22
如果只有50勝150轟很難說吧
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2023-07-01T22:29
看起來只有Trout能說穩而已 真的是超人
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2023-06-30T07:22
大谷已經150轟了
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2023-07-01T22:29
大谷不太可能破百 他也不算年輕了
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2023-06-30T07:22
神鱒要看他會不會突然退化 強如普神和小葛都是一開始退化
後war就卡著不太往上累積了
James avatar
By James
at 2023-07-01T22:29
大谷只要這樣再維持五年,基本上絕對名人堂
John avatar
By John
at 2023-06-30T07:22
30歲前沒60都很難破百吧 除非你打鼓
Vanessa avatar
By Vanessa
at 2023-07-01T22:29
大谷的狀況比較特別 即使累積WAR不夠高 但只要年數夠長
還是會進名人堂的
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2023-06-30T07:22
我覺得大谷打擊到40歲都沒問題,投球超過35歲再看狀況

2023/06/24 ATL 7 @ CIN 6

Vanessa avatar
By Vanessa
at 2023-06-25T16:51
┌──────┬─┬─┬─┬─┬─┬─┬─┬─┬─╥─┬─┬─┐ │ 2023/06/24 │1│2│3│4│5│6│7│8│9║R│H│E│ ├──────┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─╫─┼─┼─┤ │ATL(49W-27L)│0 │1 │2 │3 │0 │0 │1 │0 │ ...

Note

Steve avatar
By Steve
at 2023-06-25T12:49
01.小熊Ian Happ 生涯第11度單場雙響炮, 02.紅雀先發投手Adam Wainwright 最近被小熊敲出的7發全壘打裡面有6發 來自於 Ian Happ;Jordan Walker連續14場安打。 03.本季MLB單場比賽最多觀眾人數出現在今天的London Stadium 54662 ...

MLB

Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2023-06-25T12:40
美聯東區 球隊 W L 勝率 差 近十 連續 外卡 得分 失分 分差 主場 客場 光 芒 53 27 .663 - 5-5 L1 - 448 300 148 33-10 20-17 金 鶯 46 29 .613 4.5 5-5 W1 +5.5 367 ...

Mike Moustakas to Angels

Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2023-06-25T12:16
The Los Angeles Angels are acquiring infielder Mike Moustakas from the Colorad o Rockies, according to sources familiar with the deal. https://twitter.com ...

法官是腳趾韌帶撕裂

Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2023-06-25T00:55
https://twitter.com/chriskirschner/status/1672646315740651521 For the first time, Aaron Judge told reporters he tore a ligament in his toe. Pr eviously, t ...