換個角度看GOAT之爭(純屬娛樂) - NBA

By Ina
at 2020-10-20T11:34
at 2020-10-20T11:34
Table of Contents
前些日子ESPN專家做了個調查:#1VXU4o5X
結果引發了板上關於GOAT之爭的論戰,感覺是永遠吵不完的。
調查懶人包:
1. 現在的NBA環境,競爭更激烈
2. 老詹的球技更全面
3. 喬丹的成就更厲害
4. 喬丹是GOAT
我們暫且不談NBA的GOAT,避免大家吵起來。
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我們先把畫面切換到圍棋界,讓大家看個故事放鬆一下:
本因坊秀策(AKA:藤原佐為),有著「執黑不敗」的紀錄,因此被稱為「圍棋之神」。
可能有人會認為道策、吳清源才是,但秀策勝出的原因如下:
1. 因為《棋靈王》的加持,在個人知名度&推廣圍棋方面大勝
(連我身邊不下圍棋的朋友都知道秀策(佐為),而另外兩個就……)
2. 至今無人再達成「執黑不敗」的紀錄
時至今日,圍棋界發生了一些變動/改革:
一、規則/制度更完善
在秀策年代,黑棋是不用貼目的。
後來人們發現黑棋的優勢太大,便開始調整規則/制度,引進貼目制度。
近代普遍認為黑棋貼6目半是最公平的,黑白棋勝率比大約是50.59%:49.41%,黑棋稍微占優。
簡單來說:秀策的成就占了規則/制度上的便宜。
但必須說,除了秀策以外沒有其他人能達成「執黑不敗」的紀錄。
這項紀錄還是很了不起的!
二、AlphaGo橫空出世
這我應該不必多說了,AI圍棋的出現主要造成了兩大影響:
1. 許多定石(戰術、佈陣)被淘汰
2. 白棋勝率占優
許多過去人們習以為常的出招/佈陣方式,被AI認為是不對的。
而且在經過AlphaGo的內戰實測後,發現在貼6目半的情況下白棋的勝率是52%,白棋略微占?
總之,人們開始爭相學習AI下棋,圍棋界進入「大AI時代」。
現任世界棋王便是有著「白棋不敗」稱號的柯潔,雖然他實際上執白有輸過就是了。
問題1:在貼目制度 + AI圍棋的今日,秀策還是圍棋之神嗎?
問題2:如果是,那請問後人要如何才能超過秀策呢?
(A). 也要達成「執黑不敗」的紀錄
(B). 在知名度上贏過秀策(佐為)
(C). 永遠不可能
(D). 用其他比較方法
問題3:現在的環境對黑棋不利,秀策又有《棋靈王》加持,這樣比公平嗎?
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上述我標顏色的部分,大家可以代入NBA的某些詞彙想看看
Ex:執黑不敗 → 2次三連霸、大AI時代 → 大三分(小球)時代、……
我個人認為:
在制度&環境不同的條件下,硬性規定要達成和前人一樣的成就是不合理的。
用公式計算積分反而是最公平的比較方法,像這篇:#1VXLjNFZ。
雖然積分要怎麼設定還有得討論,但至少是綜合多種成就,公平地做全面性比較。
大家覺得怎樣比較最合理呢?
p.s. 現任圍棋之神是誰我不知道,但「圍棋女神」肯定是我們黑姊:
http://i.imgur.com/HUKsjsi.jpg

https://instagram.com/jiajia94526?igshid=119t8qrzhwsp4
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