在經濟學人FB上看到一個有趣的新聞
https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/posts/10155596642334060
原文網址 https://goo.gl/yaA2S4
Triple-doubles in basketball reflect selfishness as well as
versatility
在大三元華麗數據的背後反映出球員的全能球風以及個人私心
The evidence is convincing that players change their behaviour
in order to pad their statistics
數據呈現出球員在可能拿到大三元的情況下，改變了他們的行為
http://imgur.com/a/JXLBh http://imgur.com/XinlBWp
OFF-SEASON drama in North America’s National Basketball
Association (NBA) reached high gear on July 6th, when teams
officially became able to sign free agents. Among the most
momentous transactions so far has been the Oklahoma City
Thunder’s acquisition of Paul George, a star small forward.
Between him and Russell Westbrook, the league’s reigning Most
Valuable Player, the team will present a formidable threat next
year.
休賽期間的重頭戲-自由球員市場7月6日正式上映，而Paul George的轉隊
更是目前為止的重要交易之一，雷霆隊為新科MVP Russell Westbrook找
來了這位明星小前鋒，組成了新的電霆雙槍
Mr Westbrook needs the help. Last season he achieved an extra
-ordinary statistical feat. Basketball′s standard benchmark of
virtuoso versatility is the “triple-double”: a game in which
a player reaches double figures (ten or more) in three separate
categories, usually points, rebounds and assists. Mr Westbrook
managed to average a triple-double for an entire 82-game season.
Only one player had ever done so before, all the way back in
1961-62.
威少需要幫手，上個賽季，他達成驚人數據記錄，大三元是一個球員全能
程度的重要指標，球員在一場比賽中的不同統計項目拿到二位數的數字，
通常是得分、籃板以及助攻，就難能可貴了，而威少卻繳出了單季82場比
賽平均大三元的成績，之前只有一位球員曾經在1961-62球季辦到過。
Nonetheless, despite this Titanic accomplishment, the Thunder
were easily eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. It
is hard to reconcile Mr Westbrook′s magnificent handiwork with
his club′s lacklustre showing. But one plausible explanation
is that Mr Westbrook may have focused more on maximising his
own glory than on winning games.
即便達成驚人成就，但在季後賽的第一輪，雷霆隊沒能掙扎太久就放暑
假了，威少的驚人紀錄對比雷霆其他球員乏善可陳的表現更顯得球隊頭
重腳輕。但這也許合理化了一個可能的原因-威少也許更加專注在個人表
現勝過幫助球隊贏球。
There is of course no way to know exactly what motivated Mr
Westbrook. However, the overall pattern of players's behaviour
provides ample grounds for suspicion. Compiling large statistical
totals is difficult, so it stands to reason that games with lots
of rebounds or assists are rarer than those with just a few. For
the league as a whole, the distributions match the expected
pattern: there are fewer games with nine rebounds or assists than
with eight, fewer with eight than with seven, and so on.
當然威少有沒有這種私心外人是無從得知，然而，從球員的數據統計上，
卻加深了這種猜想。從聯盟所有球員累積數據所做出來的模型顯示，每場
比賽搶下8個籃板遠比7個籃板少，而9籃板又遠比8籃板來得少，助攻方面
也是如此，簡單講就是多增加一個籃板或是助攻，難度會大幅增加。(其
實很想說，這不是廢話嘛)
Among players on the brink of a triple-double, however, there is
a conspicuous discrepancy. Players who already have at least ten
points and assists are more likely to finish a game with ten
rebounds than with nine. Similarly, those who already have at
least ten points and rebounds are nearly as likely to wind up
with ten assists as with nine. The comparative dearth of games
with eight or nine assists or rebounds, and surfeit of those with
exactly ten, strongly suggests that players with the opportunity
for a triple-double change their actions on the court in order to
attain one. Their teammates, aware of the glory that a triple
-double can bring, may also help things along. These adjustments
suggest such players are distracted from playing to win.
有趣的是，在達成大三元成就時，就不是這麼一回事了，拿到10分10助攻
的球員拿到10籃板的次數比僅拿9籃板的次數還要多，同樣的，那些拿到
10分10籃板的球員也較容易拿到10助攻。也就是說剛剛好達成大三元門檻
的次數反而多於差一點拿到的次數。數據上的差異清楚說明了球員在有機
會拿到大三元時就會開啟傳助攻或是搶籃板模式藉以獲得大三元殊榮，或
是隊友在發現時也會開啟閃避模式或是幫忙製造空檔，這些行為上的微調
都可能導致無法專心在讓球隊獲得勝利這件事情上。
(PS 圖表上有註明是用http://www.basketball-reference.com/的數據
但是不知道我條件設錯還是怎樣，查不出圖表所列的數字，如果這部份
有錯也請指正，謝謝)
It is possible that Mr Westbrook is an exception to this pattern,
and never took his eyes off the prize of victory. But if he was
indeed guilty of “stat-padding”, next year is likely to be
different. Now that he has matched the record, he may be less
motivated to do so again. And Mr George’s arrival should make
the Thunder a much stronger team. That will give Mr Westbrook a
credible chance to play for a title, instead of mere individual
renown.
威少本季的神奇表現也許並不適用於上述的「行為模式」，不論他只是專
注在贏球還是惦惦地追逐數據表現。下個賽季，必定會有所不同。畢竟他
已經完成了單季大三元的壯舉，而且在迎來了Paul George後比起累積個人
的數據成就倒不如想辦法衝擊冠軍來得實際。
其實離大三元越近難度越高，這個大家都知道，只是這裡用統計數字來說話罷了。
當只差一點點就可以拿到大三元時，說不想拿的人反而比較少見吧。
會舉威少當例子也是因為他搶眼的表現，我相信絕對沒有其他的意思
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→ realtw: 經濟學人?哈 原來加上這四個字 連人名都沒有的就變權威了 11/16 14:19
→ realtw: 我也是經濟學人 我權威嗎 11/16 14:19
→ realtw: 台日韓新某經濟學家=全世界=權威 11/16 14:21
→ realtw: 知道啊 經濟學人是英國一個小報啊 就是故意留梗啊 11/16 14:42
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