例行賽大三元次數排名(30次+) &勝率 - NBA

By Hardy
at 2021-05-04T18:37
at 2021-05-04T18:37
Table of Contents
原文恕刪
其實這個議題當初龜龜在2016~2017第一次用場均大三元拿MVP的時候就已經討論過了
一派的人說龜龜就是個刷子,而擁龜派的人就會用「龜龜拿大三元勝率很高」來護航
其實這種統計以及這種護航的論調,就是非常典型的倖存者偏誤
什麼是倖存者偏誤,這裡直接幫懶得估狗的人解釋:
二戰的時候,美軍想加強飛機的防護以降低飛機被擊落的機率
於是就對回來有受到砲火攻擊的飛機進行統計,看哪個部分最容易被攻擊
最後得出的結論是飛機的機翼彈孔最為多,因此決定加固機翼
然而一位統計大師否定了這樣的結論,原因其實也很好理解
因為能被檢測到的飛機,都是能夠平安回來的飛機
那些被打爆的飛機你根本檢測不到
而這些平安回來的飛機,雖然機翼上受到密集的火力攻擊但它們仍能回來
反而表示被打到機翼並不是飛機會不會墜毀的重點
回到籃球上來,大家有沒有發現,這個大三元勝率榜的勝率都很高
即便是最不濟的東77,勝率也有六成
因為這個榜單是只拿有完成大三元的場次來統計
且這些人幾乎都是球隊的主將,而主將表現得好不好本來就跟球隊能否贏球呈現正相關
再來就是一個簡單的因果關係
究竟是大三元造成贏球??
還是因為你打得好幫助球隊贏球、而大三元只是對打出好表現的其中一個定義而已??
如果還不能理解這個錯誤因果關係的話我換一種說法
A隊想辦法讓這位主將打出大三元,因為在主將拿大三元球隊的比賽裡勝率有七成
B隊想辦法獲得比賽勝利,然後主將打出大三元,剛好主將十次大三元裡面贏了七次
所以你應該是要追求勝利本身、還是應該要追求大三元因為可以帶來勝利??
如果還是不明白,大三元的因果謬誤也可以用一個簡單的實例來解釋
LBJ生涯勝率大概六成多,但根據統計大三元的勝率有七成多欸好強喔
同時LBJ生涯微三元的場次數不勝數,如果大三元可以提高勝率
那LBJ應該犧牲個幾次出手想辦法補齊助攻或者籃板讓那些輸掉的微三元比賽贏回來才對呀
再來,如果龜龜刷大三元可以幫助球隊,那他今年的戰績應該要比以前更好才對呀
而且怎麼會2017~2018大三元達成率下降、但其實那年雷霆的戰績還比上一年提升呢
看到這裡,應該很明顯理解雷霆龜被嘴刷大三元的原因了吧
只拿達成大三元的場次來比根本沒什麼意義,要比還是比純粹的戰績有意義的多
再來在有拿大三元的比賽中勝率高不代表龜龜沒刷、勝率低也不代表77有刷
然後,其實大三元對贏球影響是其次,真正有影響的是該主將是否表現的好或不好
大三元只是表現好的其中一種形式,而且大三元本身也不一定能跟真正的表現好畫等號
例如刻意為之的大三元跟順其自然而打出的大三元其對球隊的幫助差別也是明顯的
現在龜龜在巫師沒人幫他刷,但我們能感受出有時他的表現是在幫助球隊的
以前的雷霆龜大家幫他刷,有看球的人也能很明顯感受到他是在傷害球隊運作的
以上,歡迎留言討論
--
如何嘴砲 反駁對方的重點──◢◣█確實指出人家論點的錯誤性 ψQSWEET
駁斥──────◢ ◣█用引言指出對方錯誤或矛盾的地方( █優質論文)
在嘴砲王 相反的觀點──◢████◣█列出相反的論點並以事實當證據( █ 辯論社)
應該出現 矛盾────◢██████◣█列出相反的論點但不加以證實( ██論壇)
的元素 攻擊態度─◢████████◣█質疑對方的態度和口氣 ( ██匿名版)
人身攻擊↘偏見↗ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█攻擊身份和能耐█幹你娘(█ 小朋友)
--
其實這個議題當初龜龜在2016~2017第一次用場均大三元拿MVP的時候就已經討論過了
一派的人說龜龜就是個刷子,而擁龜派的人就會用「龜龜拿大三元勝率很高」來護航
其實這種統計以及這種護航的論調,就是非常典型的倖存者偏誤
什麼是倖存者偏誤,這裡直接幫懶得估狗的人解釋:
二戰的時候,美軍想加強飛機的防護以降低飛機被擊落的機率
於是就對回來有受到砲火攻擊的飛機進行統計,看哪個部分最容易被攻擊
最後得出的結論是飛機的機翼彈孔最為多,因此決定加固機翼
然而一位統計大師否定了這樣的結論,原因其實也很好理解
因為能被檢測到的飛機,都是能夠平安回來的飛機
那些被打爆的飛機你根本檢測不到
而這些平安回來的飛機,雖然機翼上受到密集的火力攻擊但它們仍能回來
反而表示被打到機翼並不是飛機會不會墜毀的重點
回到籃球上來,大家有沒有發現,這個大三元勝率榜的勝率都很高
即便是最不濟的東77,勝率也有六成
因為這個榜單是只拿有完成大三元的場次來統計
且這些人幾乎都是球隊的主將,而主將表現得好不好本來就跟球隊能否贏球呈現正相關
再來就是一個簡單的因果關係
究竟是大三元造成贏球??
還是因為你打得好幫助球隊贏球、而大三元只是對打出好表現的其中一個定義而已??
如果還不能理解這個錯誤因果關係的話我換一種說法
A隊想辦法讓這位主將打出大三元,因為在主將拿大三元球隊的比賽裡勝率有七成
B隊想辦法獲得比賽勝利,然後主將打出大三元,剛好主將十次大三元裡面贏了七次
所以你應該是要追求勝利本身、還是應該要追求大三元因為可以帶來勝利??
如果還是不明白,大三元的因果謬誤也可以用一個簡單的實例來解釋
LBJ生涯勝率大概六成多,但根據統計大三元的勝率有七成多欸好強喔
同時LBJ生涯微三元的場次數不勝數,如果大三元可以提高勝率
那LBJ應該犧牲個幾次出手想辦法補齊助攻或者籃板讓那些輸掉的微三元比賽贏回來才對呀
再來,如果龜龜刷大三元可以幫助球隊,那他今年的戰績應該要比以前更好才對呀
而且怎麼會2017~2018大三元達成率下降、但其實那年雷霆的戰績還比上一年提升呢
看到這裡,應該很明顯理解雷霆龜被嘴刷大三元的原因了吧
只拿達成大三元的場次來比根本沒什麼意義,要比還是比純粹的戰績有意義的多
再來在有拿大三元的比賽中勝率高不代表龜龜沒刷、勝率低也不代表77有刷
然後,其實大三元對贏球影響是其次,真正有影響的是該主將是否表現的好或不好
大三元只是表現好的其中一種形式,而且大三元本身也不一定能跟真正的表現好畫等號
例如刻意為之的大三元跟順其自然而打出的大三元其對球隊的幫助差別也是明顯的
現在龜龜在巫師沒人幫他刷,但我們能感受出有時他的表現是在幫助球隊的
以前的雷霆龜大家幫他刷,有看球的人也能很明顯感受到他是在傷害球隊運作的
以上,歡迎留言討論
--
如何嘴砲 反駁對方的重點──◢◣█確實指出人家論點的錯誤性 ψQSWEET
駁斥──────◢ ◣█用引言指出對方錯誤或矛盾的地方( █優質論文)
在嘴砲王 相反的觀點──◢████◣█列出相反的論點並以事實當證據( █ 辯論社)
應該出現 矛盾────◢██████◣█列出相反的論點但不加以證實( ██論壇)
的元素 攻擊態度─◢████████◣█質疑對方的態度和口氣 ( ██匿名版)
人身攻擊↘偏見↗ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█攻擊身份和能耐█幹你娘(█ 小朋友)
--
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