Why the Rays are Better than The Yan … - 美國職棒

Three years from now could find the dominant Rays pitching staff the best in
baseball. Today, however, the Rays' pitchers are already better than New
York's. Using Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections, considered the most
accurate available, the outstanding Replacement Level Yankees Weblog shows
the Rays allowing six runs fewer than the Yankees this season. Likewise,
David Pinto used PECOTA to show that the Rays' starters, overall, project to
have a lower ERA than the Yankees starters. Although the 24-year-old Kazmir
might be the most experienced of Rays' 5-man rotation (which will include, in
addition to Shields and Garza, young Andy Sonnanstine and either Jason Hammel
or the former Future Star Edwin Jackson), all five of the projected starters
are expected to have more experience in the majors than the key trio of
rookie Yankees mentioned above. In the bullpen, the Yankees have the peerless
Mariano Rivera, but the Rays bullpen also has more this-year potential than
the rest of the Yankees', with the Rays' no-name guys like Juan Salas and
Trever Miller as good as or better than the Yankees' no-name guys like Jeff
Karstens and Matt DeSalvo. This assumes, of course, that key bullpen players
like 38-year-olds Troy Percival and Al Reyes can hold up. A major bullpen
injury for the Rays brings the whole house down.

在往後的三年裡面，Rays會有著全大聯盟最棒的投手陣容。但最起碼在今天為只他們的投
手陣容已經好過了Yakees。Replacement Level Yankees Weblog利用了目前大家公認最為
準確的BP PECOTA中的預測認為Rays今年球季的投手失分會比Yankees來的少。此外David
Pinto使用了PECOTA預測了所有Rays的先發投手，他們”全部”的ERA都會比Yankees的低
。雖然才24歲的Kazmir已經是Rays五人先發輪值裡面最有經驗的投手（包括了Shields和
Garza,年輕的Andy Sonnanstine 和Jason Hammel或者明日之星Edwin Jackson），所有的
預測的先發投手將預期可以比Yankees一直強調的三大年輕主投有著更多機會在大聯盟來
吸取經驗。牛棚方面，Yankees的牛棚有著金槍不倒的Mo，但是Rays的牛棚在今年可以比
Yankees有著更多的可能性讓球隊安心，來看看Rays那幾個無名小卒Juan Salas和Trever
Miller都比Jeff Karstens 和Matt DeSalvo來的棒多了。這個假定當然是牛棚關鍵人物
Troy Percival和Al Reyes穩住。牛棚要角如果受傷可能會帶給Rays巨大的災難。

Although the Rays’ pitching already outstrips the Yankees, the hitting still
lags when compared head-to-head, though not as much as many think. At
catcher, New York has a possible Hall-of-Famer in Jorge Posada. Rays catcher
Dioner Navarro had his first at bat in majors at age 20, an extraordinarily
young age for the position.

即便是Rays已經準備要超過Yankees，他們打擊在一對一比較之後還是稍嫌弱勢，不如許
多人所想的一樣。在捕手方面NY有未來的HoFer Posada。Rays的捕手Dioner Navarro則是
在20歲的時候就已經在大聯盟有著第一個打席機會，這在捕手這位置來說是異常詭異的。

Now 24, he has the youth and talent to improve substantially on his 70 OPS+
from 2007. Even so, he’s a dice roll. Posada is far better today but the gap
could close somewhat in 2008.

現在他24歲，年輕且有潛力去證明他去年球季OPS+70不是僥倖來的。即便如此，他還是個
滾動的骰子。目前來看來Posada還是比他好上許多，但在今年兩人在某些方面的差距會越
來越接近。

At first base, a Pena encore of last season would vastly outperform the
plummeting Jason Giambi and his platoon partner Wilson Betemit, a utilityman
who hits like one.

一壘手部分，去年爆炸的Pena樂勝已經垂垂老矣的Giambi和他的替換者Betemit，Betemit
看來比較像是一個工具人。

The Yankees have a huge advantage at shortstop and third base, both of which
are manned by Hall of Famers still in their primes, Bartlett's defense and
Longoria's promise notwithstanding.

在三壘和游擊上面Yankees則是大勝，Yankees的三壘手和游擊手都是一流的未來名人堂人
選，Bartlett'的防和Longoria目前的評價還沒能夠比上。

At second base, the Yankees' Robinson Cano has become a legitimately
dangerous hitter, but the jury is still out on Iwamura. Iwamura battled freak
injuries last season that limited him to fewer than 500 at bats.

在二壘守方面，Yankee的Cano未來將會成為一位可怕的打者，但目前看來Iwamura還是比
較棒一些。Iwamura去年一直被怪病纏身，使的他最後的打數沒有到500個打席。



In a full season's play, the outstanding Iwamura should meet Cano's
contributions, especially when defense is taken into account. In the
outfield, Crawford is better than any Yankee outfielder, showing far more
speed and defensive ability than Johnny Damon, more power and contact hitting
ability than the present-day Bobby Abreu, and more all-around ability than
Melky Cabrera. Only the declining and injury-prone Hideki Matsui has had
marginally superior hitting numbers to Crawford's 2008, but Crawford blows
past Matsui on the basepaths and sparks the team. In terms of pure hitting,
Upton was better as a rookie than Crawford or any Yankee outfielder, and he
will only get better. In the other outfield position, Cliff Floyd/Jonny
Gomes/Eric Hinske all have the ability to put up nice numbers.

在整個球季的比賽中，Iwamura的節出表現和Cano對Yankees的貢獻相比將會是勢均力敵的
，特別是將防守表現列入計算的話。在外野方面，Crawford比任何一位Yankees的外野手
還要優秀，在速度以及防守能力上面都比Johnny Damon還要好，爆發力以及及球能力上都
比現階段的Bobby Abreu優秀，且all-around(這邊該如何翻譯較佳？)的能力比Melky “
HoFer” Cabrera要來的優秀。只有日漸衰退且傷病纏身的松井秀喜在打擊表現上面會比
2008年Crawford要好一點點，但Crawford在壘包移動上大勝松井且使這支球隊充滿了查克
拉。純就打擊上來看，Upton比Crawford在或任何一位Yankee的外野手菜鳥時候來的優秀
，而且他只會更好。在任何外野位置上，Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes/Eric Hinske都有能
力可以交出不錯的數字。

Although the superiority of the Yankees at short, third, and catcher is
profound, the Rays have pulled even or ahead of New York at all other
offensive positions and in the pitching staff as a whole. The gap between the
two teams is not large. The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog's PECOTA-based
project gave the Rays a 27% likelihood of a playoff spot, defining the term
"puncher's chance." Everyone who has paid attention to the Rays' rise knows
the outrageous flood of young talent still to come over the next few years,
but with the recent five-year run of out-of-nowhere teams competing for the
World Series, no one should discount the Rays' chances this season.

即便在游擊，三壘以及捕手上面Yankees都還佔有優勢，Rays在其他位置上的攻擊力以及
投手的整體能力還是勝過Yankees一截。兩隊之間的差距已經越來越小了。The
Replacement Level Yankees Weblog的PECOTA-based project給了Rays 27趴的機會將會
搶到今年季後賽的一張門票，並將其定義為”小牧童的機會”。任何對Rays崛起有注意的
人都知道，這支球隊有著作弊般的年輕潛力並且在未來數年會不斷的發展出來，但是在如
果說近五年這一支突然出頭的球隊將可挑戰WS，不會有人在這一球季對這支球隊打任何折
扣。

全文完

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本文請勿轉至Ptt MLB版以及Yankees版，洩洩
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