Verlander會拿下CYA是因為回到最初的起點 - 美國職棒

By Caitlin
at 2019-11-14T21:00
at 2019-11-14T21:00
Table of Contents
今年的AL CYA競爭異常激烈,甚至今年獎項頒給誰都是實至名歸
我在十月初的時候,曾經嘗試分析Verlander和Cole各項傳統數據、進階數據、逐場表現
、投票意向等,甚至仔細分析之後也幾乎平分秋色,實在太過於難分難解。
最後因為某項因素
我最後認為Verlander會拿下AL CYA
但最後如果是Cole得獎,我也不會覺得太意外
雖然這篇或許有點馬後炮,大家可以聽聽就好
先稍微比較兩人的一些數據
Justin Verlander:
21W-6L 223.0 IP
WHIP 0.803 (百年來第二低)
ERA2.58 FIP 3.27
300K 42BB 36HR
K/9 12.1 BB9 1.7 K/BB 7.14
被打擊三圍 .172 .219 .361
WPA 4.26
WAR 6.4(FG) 7.8(BR)
Gerrit Cole:
20W-5L 212.2IP
WHIP0.895
ERA 2.50 FIP 2.64
326K 48BB 29HR
K/9 13.8 (MLB史上最高) BB9 2.0 K/BB 6.79
被打擊三圍 .186 .237 .343
WPA 3.5
WAR 7.4(FG) 6.9(BR)
可以看的出來,兩個人在各項數據都相當接近
包括傳統數據勝投、防禦率、三振數
甚至在進階數據也是殺得難分難解
逐場分析來看,Verlander本季先發單場掉最多分4分(六場)
Cole五場掉超過四分(其中一場掉6分、一場掉8分)
Cole雖然有相當驚人的326K,但V中硬是剛好拿到300K,讓兩個人的三振差距變得沒有那
麼大,而虎王的WHIP贏了0.09也可以作為抵銷
Cole有MLB史上單季最高的K/9,但是虎王也有著百年來第二低的WHIP
V中有一場無安打,但Cole也有史上唯一連續九場先發雙位數三振
所以那些認為Cole應該穩拿的人,仔細比較應該可以有別的結論
而就當分析完這些所有的數據,依然很難得出誰明顯勝出的地方
我覺得或許就是回到棒球最初的原點,
正是過去CYA投票意向最受重視的數據,勝投
Verlander就偏偏剛好以21勝硬是比Cole的20勝多了一勝
而這一場勝投大概就是V中最後勝出的關鍵。
--
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美國職棒
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