Sickels Top 20 Prospects for 2015 - 美國職棒

Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2015 by John Sickels

http://t.co/PVCb8meXEs


1) Rusney Castillo, OF, Grade A-: Cuban defector age 27, hit .333/.400/.528
with three steals in 36 major league at-bats despite rust from not playing in
over a year. Looks legit to me with speed/power combination; good track
record of most high-profile Cuban hitters is another positive.

27歲的古巴叛將，儘管一年沒出賽了，依然在大聯盟的36 AB繳出.333/.400/.528。腿/炮
組合看起來很棒；另一個加分點是過去受矚目的古巴打者轉換成功率相當高。


2) Blake Swihart, C, Grade A-: Borderline B+: Age 22, hit .293/.341/.469 with
13 homers between Double-A and Triple-A. Bat is steadily improving. Glove is
amazing: threw out 47 percent of runners while giving up zero passed balls in
96 games behind the plate. Mobile, athletic, extremely reliable.

22歲，在2A和3A繳出.293/.341/.469, 13 HR，打擊穩定成長；防守也很驚人，除了幹掉
47%的盜壘者之外，96場蹲捕中沒出現任何一次捕逸。靈活度、運動能力都很可靠。


3) Henry Owens, LHP, Grade B+: Age 22, went 17-5, 2.94 in 159 innings between
Double-A and Triple-A, 170/59 K/BB and 121 hits. Steadily progressing with
three pitch mix, durability, command, good bet to be a number three starter.

22歲，2A、3A的159局繳出17-5, 2.94 ERA, 170/59 K/BB and 121 hits，三球路、耐力
與控球穩定成長，有不錯的機率長成三號先發。


4) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Grade B+/Borderline B: Age 21, 3.60 ERA with
108/37 K/BB in 120 innings in Double-A. Strange season: did not pitch
particularly well for Bowie in the Orioles system, velocity was down. Traded
to Red Sox for Andrew Miller and stuff took a sudden step forward in final
six starts, fastball up to 97 with better secondary pitches. Given unusual
season grading is tough, which is the real Rodriguez? Could wind up ahead of
Owens if the August Rodriguez is more real than the June one.

21歲、在2A的120局繳出3.60 ERA, 108/37 K/BB。詭異的是他在金鶯2A的Bowie表現並沒
有很好，球速也掉了。被拿去換Andrew Miller之後感覺stuff突然跳了一級，最後六場比
賽出現97 mph的fastball和較優異的變化球種。這種詭異球技很難評分，到底哪個才是真
正的Ed-Rod？如果八月的Ed-Rod比六月的更真實，他甚至能超越Henry Owens。


5) Rafael Devers, 3B, Grade B+/Borderline B: Age 18, hit .337/.445/.538 in
Dominican Summer League then .312/.374/.484 in Gulf Coast League. This is an
extremely aggressive grade for a rookie ball player but I don’t always play
it safe. Questions about his defense exist but scouting reports on the bat
are excellent and the early numbers support the scouting reports. In my view,
equivalent to a first-round pick out of high school with premium tools and a
fast start and graded accordingly.

18歲，DSL .337/.445/.538、GCL .312/.374/.484。對於菜鳥聯盟的球員來說這個評分是
野心甚高的評估，但是我並不會一直打安全牌。球探對他的防守有些質疑，但是對他的打
擊都很讚賞，生涯初期的數據也支持了這些觀察。我覺得Devers和第一輪、優異tool以及
優異初期成績的高中生球員是並駕齊驅的。


6) Manuel Margot, OF, Grade B: Age 20, hit .293/.356/.462 with 12 homers, 42
steals between Low-A and High-A. Seems to do everything well, speed is ahead
of his power and will likely stay that way. Could go up to B+.

20歲，A和高階A .293/.356/.462, 12 HR, 42 SB。感覺表現很全面、速度優於砲瓦而之
後應該也會依照這個趨勢發展。有機會爬上B+。


7) Garin Cecchini, 3B-OF, Grade B-: Age 23, hit disappointing .263/.341/.371
in Triple-A although he was much more effective late in the year. Complaints
about lack of power seemed to get into his head and he changed his approach
early in the year with poor results. In August he went back to his previous
philosophy and hit .333/.413/.500, ironically showing more power after he
stopped trying to pull everything. Still, the rest of the season counts too
and the grade reflects that.

23歲，在3A只繳出令人失望的.263/.341/.371但是後期表現回升。大家對他砲瓦不足的批
評似乎對他造成影響，讓他的打擊機制跑掉而造成成績下滑。八月份喬回觀念之後繳出
.333/.413/.500─很諷刺，在停止狂拉球之後的打出更多砲瓦。不過前面的成績也算所以
評價就到此而已。


8) Matt Barnes, RHP, Grade B-: Age 24, posted 3.95 ERA with 103/46 K/BB in
128 innings in Triple-A. Shoulder trouble early but got over it, in Boston he
may be more of a reliever than a starter. Good fastball and change-up,
breaking stuff remains erratic.

24歲，在3A的128局 3.95 ERA, 103/46 K/BB。季初有肩膀問題但是後來撐過了；在紅襪
的表現似乎顯示他更適合當一位牛棚投手。不錯的fastball、changeup，但是變化球還
是相當不穩。


9) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Grade B-: Age 25, posted 2.61 ERA with 111/54 K/BB
in 138 innings in Triple-A, 4.81 ERA with 15/16 K/BB in 39 innings in the
majors. Strange track record, sometimes brilliant, sometimes terrible,
sometimes mediocre. Like Barnes, he could be a number three starter or he
could wash out. I don’t pretend to know which way it will go.

25歲，3A的138局 2.61 ERA, 111/54 K/BB，大聯盟的39局 4.81 ERA, 15/16 K/BB。過往
成績頗為詭異，有時很棒，有時很爛，有時普普。跟Barnes一樣，或許能當三號，或者可
能會養壞。我也不知道他會走向哪一邊。


10) Deven Marrero, SS, Grade B-: Age 24, hit .291/.371/.433 in 268 at-bats in
Double-A, .210/.260/.285 in 186 at-bats in Triple-A. Very good with the
glove, sometimes he hits well and many times he doesn’t. My guess is that he
will have a few good seasons offensively but not right away. Defense will be
good enough for him to play.

24歲，在2A的268 AB .291/.371/.433、3A的186 AB .210/.260/.285。防守能力優秀，打
擊狀況時好時壞。我的預測是未來會打出不錯的球季，只是不會出現在剛上大聯盟的時候
。防守能力足以讓他站上大聯盟。


11) Brian Johnson, LHP, Grade B-: Age 24, posted 1.75 ERA with 99/32 K/BB in
118 innings in Double-A. Classic four-pitch college-trained lefty, nothing
spectacular with the stuff but knows how to pitch, not as much upside as
Barnes or Ranaudo but perhaps more likely to reach what upside he has.

24歲，2A的118局 1.75 ERA, 99/32 K/BB。典型的四球種大學左投，沒有令人驚豔的
stuff但是知道怎麼投球─upside不如Ranaudo和Barnes但是有更大的機會摸到天花板。


12) Wendell Rijo, 2B, Grade B-: Age 19, hit .254/.348/.416 in Low-A, very
young for the level, stole 16 bases. Power developing, needs a lot of work on
defensive reliability but the tools are there. Breakthrough candidate.

在Low-A相對非常年輕的19歲，打出.254/.348/.416的成績，附帶16盜壘。砲瓦發展中，
防守的可靠度尚待加強但是他有足夠的tool。本季大黑馬人選。


13) Sean Coyle, 2B-3B, Grade B-: Age 23, hit .295/.371/.512 in Double-A over
96 games, has hit 32 homers in his last 160 minor league contests. Undersized
at 5-8 and there are skeptics, but the I think the strength is real, not sure
about the batting average and OBP. Reliable glove at second base but had
trouble when used at third.

23歲，在2A的96戰打出.295/.371/.512；最近的160場比賽中一共敲出32隻紅不讓。僅有
5'8的小派型身高，亦有一些質疑聲浪，但我認為他的砲瓦是貨真價實的─但不確定打擊
率和上壘率是否能維持下去。可靠的二壘防守，但是移到三壘會出現一些問題。


14) Michael Chavis, SS-3B, Grade B-/Borderline C+: Age 19, first round pick
in 2014 draft from Georgia high school, hit .269/.347/.425 in rookie ball.
Raw, particularly on defense, but has tools to be above-average on both sides
of the ball. Will need time.

19歲，2014梯選秀第一輪的Georgia high school打者，在菜鳥聯盟打出.269/.347/.425。
目前球技依然粗糙，尤其是防守方面─但是攻守兩邊的tool都有機會長成高於平均的等
級。得花一些時間養成。


15) Edwin Escobar, LHP, Grade C+: Age 22, acquired from Giants, 4.94 ERA with
116/45 K/BB in 138 innings between Triple-A Fresno and Pawtucket. Stock down
some after breaking ball went backwards, could still be a fourth starter or a
relief option, the latter looking more likely at this point.

22歲，從巨人挖來的投手，3A通算(Fresno+Pawtucket) 138局 4.94 ERA, 116/45 K/BB。
變化球表現衰退後價值下跌，但是依然有機會成為四號先發或是牛棚投手─目前而言後者
的可能性比較高。


16) Heath Hembree, RHP, Grade C+: Age 26, another part of trade with Giants,
3.72 ERA with 20 saves, 55/18 K/BB in 46 innings in Triple-A. Nothing left to
prove in the minors, fastball has declined a bit but slider has improved,
should be effective middle reliever.

26歲，一樣從巨人來的。在3A的46局 3.72 ERA, 55/18 K/BB、20救援成功。在小聯盟已
經沒啥好練的，fastball有些衰退但是slider進步了，應該能擔任優秀的中段牛棚投手。


17) Michael Kopech, RHP, Grade C+: Age 18, hard-throwing Texan drafted in
first round, 4.61 ERA with 16/9 K/BB in 14 innings in rookie ball. Long way
off, will need time but could be a rotation anchor or at least a workhorse.
Can hit mid-90s, secondaries under development.

18歲、第一輪選進的德州火球投手，在菜鳥聯盟的14局 4.61 ERA, 16/9 K/BB，需要時間
養成但有機會養成不動先發或是工作馬。目前最快球速mid-90s，變化球養成中。


18) Trey Ball, LHP, Grade C+: Age 20, first round pick in 2013, posted 4.68
ERA with 68/39 K/BB in 100 innings in Low-A. Very projectable, athletic, 6-6,
185 body, could become a number three starter if he can refine curveball and
change-up. Low strikeout rate is a negative.

20歲，2013年的第一輪；Low-A的100局 4.68 ERA, 68/39 K/BB。具有高潛力與運動能力
的6呎6吋、185磅身材，若喬好curveball和changeup的話有希望成為三號投手。低三振
率則是一項扣分。


19) Teddy Stankeiwicz, RHP, Grade C+: Second round pick in 2013, posted 3.72
ERA with 102/29 K/BB in 140 innings in Low-A. Not as much physical upside as
Ball but more polished fastball/curve/change arsenal, number four starter
potential.

2013年第二輪的投手，Low-A的140局 3.72 ERA, 102/29 K/BB，沒有像Ball那麼讚的身材
但是擁有更成熟的fastball/curve/changeup球路，四號先發潛力。


20) Carlos Asuaje, INF-OF, Grade C+: Age 23, sleeper prospect, 11th round
pick in 2013 from Nova Southeastern University, hit .310/.393/.533 with 15
homers, 59 walks, 90 strikeouts in 480 at-bats in Low-A and High-A. He has
always hit like this; he was an excellent hitter in college too but scouts
were skeptical about his tools. That opinion is starting to change; his swing
draws good reviews, the numbers are excellent. Being groomed as a
super-utility type.

23歲的黑馬新秀，2013年第11輪從Nova Southeastern University選來的打者，在Low-A
和High-A的480 AB打出.310/.393/.533, 15 HR, 90K/59BB。他過去的打擊表現亦為如此
─在大學的打擊成績亮眼，但是球探質疑他的tool。這個看法漸漸開始扭轉，他的揮棒
獲得好的回響，成績也很不錯。往超級工具人發展中。


OTHER GRADE C+: Christopher Acosta, RHP; Anderson Espinosa, RHP; Sam Travis 1B


OTHERS: Jake Cosart, RHP; Keury De La Cruz, OF; Luis Diaz, RHP; Javier
Guerra, SS; Joe Gunkel, RHP; Justin Haley, RHP; Dalier Hinojosa, RHP; Nick
Longhi, OF; Danny Mars, OF; Kevin McAvoy, RHP; Simon Mercedes, RHP; Sheev
Palpatine, Senator from Naboo; Noe Ramirez, RHP; Henry Ramos, OF; Travis
Shaw, 1B; Zeke Spruill, RHP; Steven Wright, RHP.

2014 was a rough year for the major league team. Xander Bogaerts didn’t live
up to his full potential and Jackie Bradley Jr. was terrible, but there are
still many reasons for Red Sox fans to be optimistic about the farm system.
JBJ may not figure it out but Bogaerts likely will, and Mookie Betts was a
revelation who seems completely legitimate.

2014對母隊來說是個艱困的一年，Xander Bogaerts沒拿出所有潛力，JBJ表現很糟糕，不
過紅襪球迷依然有許多對農場保持樂觀的原因。JBJ或許沒辦法走出來，但是XB應該會；
還有Mookie Betts看起來很讚。

The farm system has some depth to it. Blake Swihart has turned into an
outstanding defensive catcher with a bat that will be good-enough to play
regularly. Cuban defector Rusney Castillo made a good first impression. There
is a diverse set of players at all levels, with a mixture of polished players
who play above their tools (Cecchini, Asuaje, Sam Travis, Travis Shaw) and
toolsy players who look like they will figure things out (Devers, Margot,
Rijo). There are potential role players, potential stars, and lots of fodder
for trades.

農場有不少深度，Blake Swihart長出優異的防守，打擊也將讓他獲得固定先發的門票；
古巴叛將Rusney Castillo給大家很棒的第一印象。各級都有各式各樣型態的漁獲，有著
相對較為成熟、表現比本身的tool還好的球員(Cecchini, Asuaje, Sam Travis, Travis
Shaw)以及tool相當引人、看起來能發展茁壯的球員(Devers, Margot, Rijo)。可能的功
能型球員、可能的球星、還有許多能成為交易籌碼的球員。

You want lefties? Owens and Rodriguez (stolen from the Orioles) are two of
the top lefty prospects in baseball and should be ready for trials soon.
Brian Johnson and Edwin Escobar don’t have as much upside but could still be
good. The pitching staff at Pawtucket will be very interesting. Right-handed
pitching doesn’t have quite as much upside as but there is a lot of C+/B-
depth. Physical right-handers abound even if Barnes and Ranaudo are somewhat
enigmatic. Kopech and the pair of high-profile Latin American signees
(Christopher Acosta, Anderson Espinosa) have the highest upside but are also
the furthest away.

想要左投？這裡有Owens和Rodriguez，這兩個都是Top Prospects並即將站上審判台了；
Brian Johnson 和 Edwin Escobar都沒有他們的天花板但也有機會繳出好表現。這季
Pawtucket的先發陣容將會很有趣。右投的天花板較低但有雄厚的C+/B-深度，即使Barnes
和Ranaudo表現不穩，依然擁有豐富的優異體能右投手。Kopech和兩位國際選秀的
Christopher Acosta, Anderson Espinosa都有最佳的天花板但同時也是離大聯盟最遠的
一組。

Overall, this is a very good farm system that should continue to produce a
steady stream of talent.

總而言之，這是個非常棒的農場系統，應該能繼續穩定的供出天份來。

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"HARD WORK BEATS TALENT
WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD."

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