Re: 選秀權 - NBA

上一篇沒人鳥我

po個realgm上的統計佐證我的觀點好惹

原作者粗略地用EFF替球員分等級

統計2001-2009的選秀得出以下數據


Franchise players:
Pick 1 ..... 5/9 55%
Pick 2-5 ....9/36 25%
Pick 6-10 .. 3/45 7%
Pick 11-20.. 1/90 1%
Pick 21/30 0/90 0%

NBA starters (above average starter)
Pick 1 ..... 2/9 22%
Pick 2-5 ....13/36 36%
Pick 6-10 .. 13/45 29%
Pick 11-20.. 6/90 7%
Pick 21/30 8/90 9%

Combined... pick will net at least a NBA starter
Pick 1 ......... 7/9 78%
Pick 2-5 .......22/36 61%
Pick 6-10 .....17/45 39%
Pick 11-20....6/90 7%
Pick 21/30...8/90 9%


看到沒 7% 9%

要用雙位數順位撿到一個優質先發的機率

是ㄊㄇ的低

即便今年選秀大年把機率雙倍好了

還是ㄊㄇ的低


原文 http://0rz.tw/Bc9su


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