這篇在LL有點戰起來的感覺。
我個人的看法是，除了像蔡阿甘那種動作一看就怪的，
想從投球動作上的微妙差異判斷球員未來受傷的可能性，
這樣的研究還有很長一段路要走。
Lincecum在major登場前球探怎麼說他的？
大學時使用過度，再加上投球動作劇烈，受傷可能性很高，
現在他在major投上一整季了，沒受傷成績也很好，
突然這位Kyle Boddy作者說他的投球動作很理想了（至少比Morrow理想）。
話都是人在說的。
LL的討論裡提到一點就是，
下面這篇文章的作者，提到的都是“觀點”與“假設”，
並沒有“資料”，也就是沒有數據可以證明投手這樣投會容易受傷。
（這與過度使用不同，大量投球會導致受傷，是有資料可以佐證的。）
或許小違反人體工學是事實，但我們是活在科學時代，
人體工學這學門本身如果稱得上是科學，那當然也是要被實驗檢驗，
而違反人體工學與受傷之間的聯結，當然也是需要有充份資料才可以建立。
在該文中，看不到資料，這是最大的問題。
LL提到的另一件事就是Wood與Prior的例子，
他們的投球動作很多人都喜歡，還不是受傷了？
我不是說Morrow是個不會受傷的投手，
但我不認為現在的投球動作分析，
以經成熟到可以從投手出手前一個微小角度的差異，
就判斷出這動作長期而言容易導致受傷。
如果作者能收集史上數千位投手的出手角度照片，
然後分析他們生涯的傷病史，
再得出這動作會讓投手的受傷機會增加XX％的結論，
那才有說服力得多。
※ 引述《abc12812 (Sudba tseloveka)》之銘言：
: http://tinyurl.com/4yhz8h
: by Kyle Boddy on Sep 10, 2008 9:59 AM PDT
: Since David already did a great piece on Brandon Morrow's PITCHf/x analysis,
: I'll just stick to his pitching mechanics.
: Brandon Morrow stands 6'3" 185 lbs and was drafted 5th overall in the 2006
: MLB amateur draft by the Seattle Mariners. A RHP, Morrow primarily relies on
: his plus fastball to get hitters out:
: Morrow is known for his blistering fastball (with some pretty good movement),
: but concerns have been raised about the long-term health of his arm, given
: that he spent two weeks on the disabled list with a sore shoulder at the
: beginning of 2008.
: Let's take a look at those mechanics...
: Below is the image that we'll use for analysis of his pitching mechanics:
: This pitch was strike three to Manny Ramirez (then on the Red Sox), clocking
: in at 99 mph on the Safeco Field radar gun. I have my doubts about it
: actually being 99 mph, but that's another debate.
: Astute readers will notice a few things right off the bat:
: * He has a "plunge" arm action that is very similar to Tim Lincecum.
: * He loads the arm horizontally in a "scapula loading" pattern.
: * He makes the "Inverted L."
: * He has significant flexion in the wrist, which Dr. Marshall calls
: "grab."
: * He has significant gloveside flyout.
: Breaking it down further...
: Tempo: Brandon Morrow is 20-21 frames from maximal leg lift to footplant.
: This is Average, bordering on Good.
: Arm Action: This is what Morrow looks like right before and at the point his
: shoulders begin to turn:
: There are a few things that are very troublesome about this sequence of
: images. First of all, note how in the first frame that his arms are in the
: classic "hung arm" pose that Tom House used to teach and is evident in
: pitchers like Mark Prior, Anthony Reyes, and especially Barry Zito:
: I used to think the tension in the wrist wasn't a big problem, but after
: further research, I've concluded that the "grab" can cause "looping" (Dr.
: Marshall's terms), which essentially lengthens the driveline to the target
: and forces it in an arc, rather than a straight line. This part of Morrow's
: arm action is prevalent when we take a closer look at his arm action:
: Compare this with, say, Tim Lincecum:
: Note how Lincecum's arm action is more direct to the plate, while Morrow's
: "loops" back around and to the target due to his grab. Lincecum also is
: closer to a vertical forearm at release, which is ideal, but that's a
: different discussion entirely.
: Morrow's arm is not vertical at footstrike / shoulder turn, as evidenced in
: the hung arm animated sequence. This will increase the distance that his arm
: passes through the external rotation phase and force it to lay back violently
: - experiencing "forearm bounce." This will increase the stress on the UCL as
: well as the Subscapularis and Supraspinatus in the shoulder. (Pitchers who
: have significant forearm bounce are Joel Zumaya, Kerry Wood, and Billy
: Wagner.)
: Morrow's arm action is troubling. I would grade it Below Average.
: Ball Release / Followthrough
: Morrow points the PAS shoulder at the target fairly well, but he flies open
: with his glove arm, just like Scott Kazmir. He also has an abrupt finish,
: which is troubling and probably the result of not throwing against a firm
: front side. However, Morrow mostly keeps his head still, which should help
: with command/control of his pitches.
: Overall, though, I don't like his deceleration. I think it's Below Average.
: Conclusions
: Mariners fans are pinning their hopes and dreams to this kid - and rightfully
: so. He'll always be looked at as the kid taken over hometown hero Tim
: Lincecum, and while his pure stuff might not be as good, it's certainly not
: far behind. Unfortunately, there's a lot to worry about with Brandon Morrow
: compared to Tim Lincecum - Morrow's late positioning at footstrike, his
: "grab" in the arm action which leads to looping, and his poor followthrough
: combined with a short history of shoulder problems leads me to wonder how
: well off he'll be in the 2009 season when he'll be expected to make a full
: season's worth of starts.
: I would treat Brandon Morrow as a significant injury risk in his career,
: though probably nothing serious will happen in the next few years. Morrow has
: too many flaws to correct at this point; he is already an MLB-polished
: pitcher with a lot of expectations placed on his golden arm.
--
孩子, 看到那蒼藍的小點了嗎？
那是我們的家......
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