Manuel Margot - 美國職棒

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Boston Red Sox prospect Manuel Margot has recently been promoted to Double-A,
and in 16 games, as of July 8th, is hitting well (.295/.358/.443). He is
considered one of the most exciting players in the minor leagues, with future
five-tool potential--but is he really as good as many seem to think?

Manuel Margot先前升上了2A，升級後的16場比賽繳出.295/.358/.443的成績─他擁有
令人興奮的五拍子潛力，但是他真如大家所期待嗎？

Hit Tool:

Margot has a solid hit tool, with a quick bat that moves well through the
strike zone. He can put the barrel of the bat on the ball consistently and
has fair pitch recognition, rarely striking out. He doesn't have a lot of
trouble with breaking balls, which is especially impressive given the fact
that he is only 20 years old. He has good bat speed and a compact swing,
although it can get long on pitches out of the zone.

Hit tool還不錯，揮棒速度快，揮棒方式也很棒。他能穩定的咬中球、球種辨識能力也OK
，鮮少被三振。變化球對他來說不會太棘手─對20歲球員來說是很了不得的。揮棒快速而
簡潔，雖然有時會去追打好球帶外的球而造成揮棒過程變長。

He is slightly too aggressive and rarely works a deep count, and in the few
times I have watched him he chases pitches out of the zone. Some may think it
is good that he rarely strikes out, but that also means he hardly ever walks
and makes his strike zone bigger, leading to some weak contact. He has good
loft in his swing. When I watched him he had trouble going to the opposite
field.

Margot有點過度積極，很少累積球數─我現場看球時看到他會追打壞球。雖然有些人認為
他很少被三振是好事，但這同時意味著他幾乎不會獲得保送，好球帶也擴大了─導致更多
weak contact。他的揮棒能將球抬起，不過目前不太能將球打向反方向。

Future Hit - 55

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Power:

Margot has decent power, despite his small frame. Thanks to his swift bat and
good barrel control, Margot can drive the ball well. He has good gap power,
but little to no over the fence power outside of batting practice. I see the
potential for 25-35 doubles a season, which is quite good, but am not as
optimistic about his home run power, and see 12-15 home runs a year, as
opposed to some other scouting reports which see him at 18-20. He needs to
work on his power in the game, for when he gets too aggressive it is hard for
him to make solid contact.

身材偏小但砲瓦很不錯，他的揮棒速度與揮棒控制讓他具備打line drive的能力。Margot
有很棒的gap power，全壘打能力則是只會出現在揮棒練習中。我的預測是25-35個double
、12-15 HR(有些球探說18-20)。他需要在比賽中展現力量─過度積極的出棒會吃掉砲瓦
以及咬中球的能力。

Future Power - 50

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Speed:

Speed is one of Margot's strong suits, and he consistently runs from home to
first base in 4.23-4.28, according to Baseball Prospectus. Because of his
good speed he can easily advance extra bases, but needs to choose his spots
more wisely, as he doesn't always judge whether he should take the extra base
correctly. He also doesn't get good jumps on the base paths, but I think that
can be fixed. His speed plays up on defense and will allow him to stay in CF.

速度是Margot最強的武器，從本壘到一壘一般都只花4.23-4.28秒。他的速度幫他多賺了
幾隻長打，但有時候會發生誤判而出局。啟動盜壘的jump還有點問題，但我認為這部分可
以改正。他的速度也讓足以站穩CF。

Future Speed - 65

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Arm:

Margot's arm is average, although he releases the ball quickly and has good
accuracy. He has enough arm for CF and although he has a little trouble
getting the ball to home plate, it is not as much of a problem for CF. Feel
with proper training he could have a solid arm.

手臂是平均等級，不過傳球準度夠、放球速度也快。他的傳球不能直達本壘，不過對中外
野手來說足夠了。個人認為在適度訓練下可以進步一些。

Future Arm - 50+

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Defense:

Along with speed, defense is Margot's calling card. Because he has such good
speed, he can play shallow and backtrack. He reads the ball well and has good
instincts. As at the plate, he is advanced for his age. He also takes good
routes and can go side to side as well as backtrack and come in well. He
always seems in control of the outfield and projects to stay in CF throughout
his career.

防守是Margot的另一張王牌。防守可深可淺，解讀棒球去向的直覺不錯。防守可以說是超
齡表現，與攻擊一樣。接球路徑選擇佳，往前後或側向都很靈活。預計整個生涯都能守CF。

Future Defense - 65

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Review:

Although it is debatable whether Margot can be a leadoff hitter, thanks to
his poor OBP, his well above average defense and speed should make sure he
will be a solid first division regular. I project .280/.320/.400 hitter with
10-15 homers a year, 30-35 steals a year if he can get better jumps. His
defensive skills will make sure he has a job no matter what.

Margot能否擔綱開路先鋒依然是有爭議的─癥結在於他的上壘率。不過優異的防守和速度
已經確保他能擔任優良的first division固定先發。我的預測是.280/.320/.400、10-15
HR、30-35盜(jump有矯正好的話)。中外野的防守技巧則已經讓Margot拿了一個鐵飯碗在
手上。

--
＊Athletic frame.
＊High baseball IQ. Xander
＊Smooth, fluid swing. Bogaerts
＊Elite batspeed. #01
＊Strong and explosive hands.
＊Above-average-to-better power ceiling, potential 30 home run bat.

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