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Lars Anderson and Josh Reddick both put up some very solid numbers last
season, and could soon add some pop to an already talented and youthful Red
Sox team. I dug around to find some comps for each hitter, and I think there
is good reason for Red Sox fans to be very optimistic .
First, the comps for Anderson (based off of minor league totals).
Player Age(at A) K% BB% K/BB HR% XBH% IsoP BA
David Wright 19 18 13 1.4 3 10 .186 .288
Lars Anderson 19 21 14 1.5 3 9 .166 .298
Jorge Posada 20 21 14 1.5 3 9 .178 .258
Larry Walker 19 23 12 1.9 4 9 .207 .259
As it stands, I like the Wright comparison most. Posada didn't have quite the
same contact capacity as Anderson does, and Walker had better power numbers,
so they don't match up quite as well.
Anderson showed some extra power in 2008 at advanced A ball, so I also broke
down the comparison based strictly off of A+ stats.
Player Age(at A+) K% BB% K/BB HR% XBH% IsoP BA
David Wright 20 19 13 1.5 2 9 .170 .275
Lars Anderson 20 18 13 1.4 4 9 .196 .317
Jorge Posada 21 19 14 1.4 3 9 .200 .259
Larry Walker 19 23 19 1.2 3 12 .257 .283
Once again, I think the Wright comparison is probably our best here. I think
that ultimately Anderson will hit for more power than Wright, but not nearly
as much as Walker, and should be a solid .290 plus hitter early in his
career. I'll be interested to see if his home run numbers start to climb this
year, but even if they don't he still projects as a 25 to 30 plus home run
hitter with an upside of 35 to 40.
Here are Reddicks comps (once again, based off of minor league totals).
Player Age(at A) K% BB% K/BB HR% XBH% IsoP BA
Justin Morneau 20 16 9 1.8 4 11 .217 .310
Josh Reddick 20 15 7 2.1 4 10 .229 .309
Jermain Dye 20 15 7 2.1 4 10 .192 .292
Ryan Braun 21 18 8 2.3 5 13 .259 .313
Overall, I feel most comfortable with the Jermain Dye comp, but Reddick has
enough power and plate discipline to match up with Morneau and maybe even
Braun over the next year or two.
Just for the sake of it, here are each player's A ball numbers (I wanted to
use their advanced A stats, but I felt the A ball stats were more accurate
for this comparison).
Player Age(at A+) K% BB% K/BB HR% XBH% IsoP BA
Justin Morneau 20 15 10 1.5 5 12 .241 .356
Josh Reddick 20 13 7 1.9 5 10 .225 .306
Jermain Dye 20 15 6 2.5 3 11 .174 .298
Ryan Braun 21 21 6 3.5 5 16 .290 .355
The Sox made it very clear last year that they wanted Reddick to become a
more selective hitter and draw more walks, but it seemed to only mess with
his head towards the end of the year, and he didn't respond very well. I've
read several articles this spring indicating that the Red Sox will probably
lay off a bit this year and let Reddick do his thing while quietly iterating
pitch selection, and I think that's probably the best approach to take.
Looking at the stats and comps, guys like Reddick succeed the most when
they're swinging the bat and making contact, so why not let them? If he had a
really bad strikeout to walk ratio it might be a legitimate point of focus,
but the numbers suggest he'll probably be just fine.
Anyways, Reddick also projects as a .280 or .290 plus hitter early in his
career, with 25 or 30 home runs and 40 on the up side. On the surface it
seems that Anderson and Reddick will have essentially the same production
level, but they'll get there in completely different ways. Reddick will
always be a contact based hitter, while Anderson will be a much more patient
on-base type player. Either way, I think they both should have very
productive careers.
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