INSIDER NOTEBOOK: UPSET ANALYSIS - 網球 Tennis

僅翻譯少部分內容 比賽結果標色

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analysis

INSIDER NOTEBOOK: UPSET ANALYSIS

對爆冷的深入分析

WTA Insider Courtney Nguyen | A closer look at the historic week of upsets at
the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.

Published February 17, 2016 12:15

A deeper look at the Dubai upsets: After three days of play at the Dubai Duty
Free Tennis Champions, no seeds remain in the tournament. This is the first
time the seeds went winless at a WTA event and just the fourth time no seeds
advanced to the quarterfinals (2014 Bastad, 2012 Bogota, 2009 Hobart).

打完這三天的杜拜賽事後，沒有任何剩下的種子 這是WTA史上第一次在單一賽事中
所有種子選手都沒贏下任何比賽，也只是史上第四次沒有種子選手進入到八強

Needless to say, this week's results in Dubai are a statistical anomaly,
especially for a Premier tournament. The withdrawals of World No.1 Serena
Williams, Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber, and Australian Open
semifinalist Agnieszka Radwanska -- the top three women on the Road to
Singapore leaderboard -- reshuffled the top seeds in Dubai and injected some
level of unpredictability in a tournament where conditions are already
tricky. The balls tend to fly and the courts have been recently resurfaced.
Control is at a premium.

不用多說，本周結果是很詭異的，尤其在Premier等級賽事。小威，Kerber跟Radwanska
都沒有參加本周比賽 也讓這站的種子重新洗牌 也注入了一定程度的不可預知性

But a closer look at the top seeds' opening round match-ups does provide some
context for this unprecedented exodus. For No.5 seed Belinda Bencic and No.7
seed Roberta Vinci, who played the St. Petersburg Ladies Trophy final on
Sunday, both women arrived less than 24 hours before their opening round
matches. Bencic lost to Jelena Jankovic, no slouch of a player herself, while
Vinci looked understandably sluggish in a 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 loss to qualifier
Yaroslava Shvedova.

Bencic跟Vinci都是在上一個賽事打完決賽後飛到這邊不到24小時就打這邊的第一場
比賽

As for the remaining six seeds:

- Ana Ivanovic d. No.1 Simona Halep 7-6(2), 6-2: It's been a sputtering start
to the season for Halep, who dropped to 3-3 this season. Halep took a late
wildcard into Dubai after deciding to postpone nasal surgery. Her mantra from
the start of the season has been simple and repetitive: Matches, matches,
matches. Halep has yet to play herself into form and the rustiness,
particularly on the big points, shows.


"I'm disappointed that I lost but it's okay," Halep said. "I feel good.
Physically I'm okay. I have no pain anywhere. It's good, and the most
important thing is that I'm healthy."

As for Ivanovic, she's rebounded well from a disappointing 2015 season. After
going 0-2 to start the year her level has improved week after week. She was
dominated Madison Keys for most of their third round match at the Australian
Open, but get nervous in the end, losing 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. She made the
semifinals last week in St. Petersburg, only to lose to the
slicing-and-dicing wiles of Vinci.

But Ivanovic carried that form into Dubai this week. She blasted No.35 Daria
Gavrilova off the court in the first round, losing just one game. And her win
over Halep on Wednesday was her first top 5 win since the 2014 WTA Finals,
when she beat...Simona Halep.


- Elina Svitolina d. No.2 Garbiñe Muguruza 7-6(3), 6-3: Svitolina has been
playing at a good level. It just hasn't been obvious after a surprising
second round loss to Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open. Could her decision
to hire Justine Henin as a coaching consultant inject a sense of urgency in
the Ukrainian's game? Her improvement over the years has been steady but the
Henin hiring may just signal a new level of hunger and ambition.

Much like Halep, Muguruza's 2016 start has struggled to gain traction. A foot
injury left her undercooked in Melbourne, where she lost in the third round
to Barbora Strycova. Against Svitolina she hit 68 unforced errors in two sets.

"I'm not really finding my game, so I think I have to rest a little bit and
concentrate again and work hard and eventually come back to the tournament to
play again," Muguruza said after the loss. "I think I'm not really ready to
compete. I need to work a little bit more. My shots, my fitness. So we'll
see."

She told reporters she's still dealing with her foot injury and her
participation in next week's Qatar Total Open is up in the air. "If I'm not
100%, I don't think it's necessary," she said. "So we'll see these couple of
days."

- Caroline Garcia d. No.3 Carla Suárez Navarro 4-6. 6-4, 6-3: The young
Frenchwoman has an uncanny ability to use a strong Fed Cup weekend as a
springboard to confident play on tour. She was the hero in France's win over
Italy two weeks ago, scoring singles wins over Sara Errani and Camila Giorgi.

- Madison Brengle d. No.4 Petra Kvitova 0-6, 7-6(1), 6-3: At I highlighted in
my last Notebook, Kvitova is at a crossroads right now. She drops to 1-5 this
season, with that sole win coming against No. 143 Luksika Kumkhum in the
first round of the Australian Open, and announced a surprising split with
long-time coach David Kotyza. The high-flying conditions in Dubai have not
been easy for the Czech. Setting aside a title run in 2013, she has not made
it past the second round and lost in the opening round at four of five
appearances.

- CoCo Vandeweghe d. No.6 Karolina Pliskova 7-6(5), 6-1: The two split their
two prior meetings, so it's not like this result was out of the blue for
Vandeweghe. But it's been difficult to get a read on Pliskova's form in 2016.
She had a fantastic Fed Cup run two weeks ago, scoring a three-set win over
Halep. In Sydney she earned two good wins over Ivanovic and Anastasia
Pavlyuchenkova. But she has yet to win more than two matches at a tour event.

- Julia Goerges d. No.8 Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-0, 6-1: The erratic nature of
her game persists -- we're talking about Goerges here -- but the German has
been very good this season. Kuznetsova had little chance against her in the
first round, with Goerges blasting 28 winners and 15 unforced errors.

Projected Rankings: The big news on Monday: Roberta Vinci will finally make
her Top 10 debut. Despite losing in the first round she'll move up three
spots after Suarez Navarro, Lucie Safarova, and Venus Williams drop.

Bencic跟Vinci下週都將創下生涯排名新高

Next week's projected rankings:

1. Serena
2. Kerber
3. Radwanska (+1)
4. Halep (-1)
5. Muguruza
6. Sharapova
7. Bencic (+2, career-high)
8. Kvitova
9. Pennetta (-2)
10. Vinci (+3, Top 10 debut)
11. Suarez Navarro
12. Safarova (-2)
13. Venus (-1)
14. Azarenka (or Ivanovic wins the title)
15. Bacsinszky (or Azarenka if Ivanovic wins the title)

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