Give Chien-Ming a chance - 棒球

※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板]

作者: abc12812 () 看板: MLB
標題: Give Chien-Ming a chance
時間: Wed Feb 10 10:02:57 2010

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/give-chien-ming-a-chance/


With Ken Rosenthal reporting that Chien-Ming Wang is going to make a decision
on his (most likely) new team within seven to ten days, I decided to once
again use Fangraphs' new splits data and see if there was anything that stuck
out with Wang. Here are his xFIP's from 2005-2009, first versus righties and
then versus lefties:

2005: 3.97, 4.46
2006: 3.94, 4.42
2007: 3.68, 4.76
2008: 3.49, 5.00
2009: 3.53, 5.54

That's 4.69 against lefties for his career and 3.78 versus righties. Although
Wang has improved his performance against right-handed hitters throughout his
career, he has gotten worse against lefties. While this is unsurprising for a
groundball pitcher, the jump in xFIP (1.12 difference in '06 and '09) is
pretty startling. Let's take a look at Wang's batted ball data versus
lefties, specifically GB/FB ratio and LD%:

2005: 2.51, 11.8%
2006: 2.84, 17.0%
2007: 2.33, 21.8%
2008: 2.26, 20.5%
2009: 2.00, 25.8%

So there has clearly been an increase in the quality of the ball off the bat
of lefties against Wang. However, let's not forget that Wang only through
20.1 innings against left-handers last year. That tells you pretty much
nothing. While Wang may be declining against lefties, he probably is more
around a ~5.00 xFIP pitcher against them, which would, combined with his
skill against righties, make him a valuable pitcher relative to his asking
price. Finally, here are his projected FIP's for 2010:

CHONE: 3.94
MARCEL: 4.29
Bill James: 3.81
Fans (24): 3.94

Not bad. Considering Wang has also consistently outperformed the league
average on HR/FB% (other than his outlier '09 season), Wang could conceivably
be a ~2.3 WAR pitcher next year if he recovers fully from his injury. That
issue is a whole other story, but for now, non-injury Chien-Ming Wang is
looking like a bargain.

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