Braves are paying the price and What - 美國職棒

原文發表在The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

By Michael Cunningham

一般來說 ajc 的文章複製網址貼到browser，通常第一篇可以看得到啦….

https://tinyurl.com/hjsdbfux

內文就不多提了，我想說的就是…..

What if ……

In a multi-universe, AA renewed the contract of FF prior to the 2021 season desp
ite of the financial difficulty raised by the Covid-shortened 2020 season……..
The difference between the annual salaries of these two players is just a few mi
llion….. sign…..


———————————-

Braves paying the price for committing long-term to Marcell Ozuna
050622 Atlanta: Atlanta Braves left fielder Marcell Ozuna reacts as he leaves th
e field as the Braves’ lost to the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 at Truist Park on Frid
ay, May 6, 2022, in Atlanta. (Jason Getz / [email protected])
Caption
Credit: Jason Getz / [email protected]
MIKE CHECK BLOG
By Michael Cunningham, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2 hours ago
Josh Donaldson was great for the Braves as a short-term rental in 2019. He produ
ced big numbers as a hitter, was sharp at third base and energized the clubhouse
with his amiable cockiness. General manager Alex Anthopoulos decided that, as a
long-term investment, Donaldson was too risky. The Braves aren’t in the habit
of give contracts of multiple years to older players.

Explore
More AJC coverage of the Braves
Donaldson signed for big money with the Twins. To replace his bat in the lineup,
Anthopoulos signed Marcell Ozuna. He also was great as a short-term rental, exc
ept it turned out he wasn’t that. Anthopoulos signed Ozuna to a four-year, $65
million contract in February 2021, with a team option to pick up a fifth year.

There’s a near-zero chance that $16 million option will be exercised when the t
ime comes. The Braves probably wish they could get out from under what’s left o
f Ozuna’s $16 million salary this season and the $32 million due over the next
two. Anthopoulos made an exception to his usual practice by signing Ozuna to tha
t contract. All signs indicate it’s going to cost the Braves for a while.

Ozuna has played in 92 of 207 possible games since the start of last season (all
statistics are before games this weekend). He’s hit .222 with a .280 on-base p
ercentage over that time with a minus-0.5 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement. Ozun
a has more strikeouts (88) than hits (80) during that span. His .657 on-base plu
s since the start of 2021 would be sixth-worst in the majors if he had enough at
-bats to qualify.

There’s no sign of a turnaround for Ozuna. This season he’s hitting .231. Only
54 major leaguers are doing worse. Ozuna’s .270 on-base percentage is better t
han just 19 players. Ozuna is not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did two
seasons ago, he’s swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone and he’s
walking less often. There’s no silver lining in sight for Ozuna.

Sign up for AJC’s Braves Report for latest news on your team

SIGN UP
I agree to the Visitor Agreement and Privacy Policy.

Ozuna’s 2020 season is looking like a 60-game outlier rather than a sign of his
resurgence. That was the risk when Anthopoulos signed Ozuna to a long-term deal
. Ozuna had been an All-Star with the Marlins, solid with the Cardinals and then
great with the Braves. Anthopoulos re-signed Ozuna based on the premise that he
’d produce like he did for Miami and the Braves. Instead, Ozuna now is one of t
he worst everyday players in MLB.

During 2020 spring training, Ozuna said he hoped to stick with the Braves for lo
nger than one season. That seemed unlikely. The Braves were stacked with good, y
oung talent in the outfield. Ronald Acuna was the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year and
a 2019 All-Star. The top prospects in the organization then were outfielders Cr
istian Pache and Drew Waters. All three were better fielders than Ozuna.

Ozuna’s big season in 2020 meant he was going to get a long-term deal in free a
gency. It didn’t seem as if the Braves would be the team to pay. They declined
to do it with Donaldson. He singed with the Twins for $92 million over four year
s. Donaldson wasn’t nearly as good for Minnesota as he was with the Braves. The
Twins traded Donaldson to the Yankees in March and he’s been pretty good this
season.

Ozuna was 30 years old after the 2000 season, not 33 like Donaldson was after hi
s Braves’ tenure. The designated hitter was coming to the NL soon. That would m
ean the Braves could get Ozuna’s bat in the lineup while keeping him out out th
e field. But Ozuna still didn’t seem to be the veteran that Anthopoulos would c
ommit future years to sign. The decision to do so immediately went south for Ant
hopoulos.

Ozuna was struggling to produce when he went on the injured list in May 2021. So
on after that he was arrested on allegations of domestic violence. Later, MLB pl
aced him on administrative leave while it investigated. The league retroactively
suspended Ozuna for 20 games, but he avoided further discipline. That seemed to
be a break for the Braves, but Ozuna has become a big drag on the lineup.

Spending on free agents can be very inefficient. Anthopoulos usually limits the
risk by sticking to short-term deals. That’s a prudent approach for a GM who wi
ll never be able to spend Dodgers or Mets money and who inherited a strong farm
system. Before Ozuna, the strategy worked for Anthopoulos.

Anthopoulos signed left-hander Dallas Keuchel during the 2019 season. Keuchel we
nt on to compile the second-best ERA among Braves starters. Donaldson led the Br
aves in WAR during the 2019 season. Anthopoulos signed right-hander Charlie Mort
on to a one-year extension in September. Morton hasn’t been as good this season
as he was in 2021. If he doesn’t turn things around, then at least the Braves
won’t have to pay him beyond this season.

Ozuna’s contract is a blunder that won’t be so easy to undo. Now the question
is whether Ozuna’s salary will become dead weight for a payroll that can’t aff
ord much of it.

Among Braves players, only Morton ($20 million) is making more than Ozuna ($16 m
illion) this season. Ozuna’s $16 million salary for 2023 is third-highest for B
raves players under contract behind Matt Olson ($21 million) and Acuna ($17 mill
ion). If Ozuna can’t start producing then the options are bench him and essenti
ally eat his salary, designate him for assignment and eat his salary or trade hi
m while (likely) eating a lot of his salary.

I’ll never say a player can’t be traded. I learned that lesson in the summer o
f 2012 when ex-Hawks general manager unloaded Joe Johnson’s onerous contract. B
ut it’s hard to see Ozuna having much value on the market. Ozuna is 31 with one
really good season back in 2017 and has a domestic-violence arrest on his ledge
r. The Braves are pretty much stuck hoping that Ozuna somehow becomes at least a
solid major leaguer again.

Every GM makes mistakes. Anthopoulos hasn’t made many big errors while engineer
ing several shrewd moves. Signing Donaldson to a one-year deal was one of them.
Replacing him with Ozuna on a similar deal was another. Then Anthopoulos broke t
he pattern of short-term deals to re-sign Ozuna. That mistake is still costing t
he Braves.





--
A Historic moment...
May 30, 2003
Atlanta 5, NY Mets 2 at Shea Stadium
Winning Pitcher - Greg Maddux (4-5)
Losing Pitcher - Tom Glavine (5-5)
SV - John Smoltz(20) HR - C. Jones (9, off Glavine)

--