Baseball Analysts: 2009 AL East Preview - 美國職棒

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/03/2009_al_east_pr.php



Chipping in from Baseball Analysts today with commentary is Marc Hulet,
contributor here and also at Fangraphs. We are also very thankful to have
Pete Abraham, Yankees beat writer for the The Journal News.



Catcher

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Navarro, D. .267 .334 .389 .723
Varitek, J. .236 .328 .390 .718
Posada, J. .273 .366 .448 .814
Barajas, R. .243 .303 .392 .695
Wieters, M. .298 .382 .499 .881


Pete: I think Jorge Posada will bounce back this year offensively. Throwing
was never his strength, so he just needs to be able to keep runners a little
honest. I wonder how much we'll see of Matt Wieters. It doesn't make much
sense for Baltimore to start his clock yet.


Sully: Wieters in the Minors would be an absolute mockery. After he wins the
MVP this season, I fully expect him to fix Healthcare and restore economic
prosperity in America.



First Base

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pena, C. .254 .370 .500 .870
Youkilis, K. .283 .377 .474 .851
Teixeira, M. .290 .383 .525 .908
Overbay, L. .265 .343 .419 .762
Huff, A. .279 .340 .471 .811


Pete: Mark Teixeira will start slow; he always seems to. But will be bounce
back in New York? That'll be interesting to watch. I don't think Kevin
Youkilis is as good as he was last year. Carlos Pena, either.


Marc: The addition of Teixeira to the AL East obviously has huge
implications. It will be interesting to see if Youkilis can repeat his
stellar 2008 season, or if he reverts to his still-productive-but-not-a-star
former self. I have to disagree with Peter. Offensively, I think Pena will be
OK; he's still in his prime and should drive in 100 again.


Sully: Tex is hands down the best in the division and I have to agree with
Pete. Youk's slugging jump last year was a blip, and not a new established
norm. He's a really nice player, but not a perennial MVP candidate type.



Second Base

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Iwamura, A. .270 .346 .389 .735
Pedroia, D. .307 .368 .456 .824 <(￣︶￣)>
Cano, R. .292 .331 .450 .781
Hill, A. .277 .334 .408 .742
Roberts, B. .282 .359 .424 .783


Pete: I like Brian Roberts. Not sure I like him for four more years and $40
million. It's too bad Robinson Cano doesn't have the desire to be great that
Dustin Pedroia does. The Yankees thought they did the right thing with his
deal last year and then it blew up on them. He's a big project for Joe
Girardi.


Marc: This position is definitely a strength in the division, with Pedroia,
Roberts and Cano. If Aaron Hill is fully recovered from the concussion he
suffered last season, you can add his name to that list too. Cano should
definitely rebound; he's taken his lumps in the media and has something to
prove.


Sully: That four year extension for Roberts was hard to figure for where
Baltimore currently stands in the success cycle.



Third Base

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Longoria, E. .273 .347 .499 .846
Lowell, M. .275 .336 .444 .780
Rodriguez, A. .291 .387 .548 .935
Rolen, S. .263 .342 .434 .776
Mora, M. .271 .337 .431 .768


Pete: (ed note: submitted pre-injury) A-Rod loves the drama and will have a
huge year. Of course he'll then hit .052 in the playoffs. If he starts slow,
however, the fans could really get ugly. They're already mad about the price
of tickets. I'll be curious to see how Mike Lowell takes Boston trying to get
rid of him all winter.


Marc: The injury to A-Rod changes the dynamics of this position with vague
reports on exactly when he'll be back. The Yankees definitely did not have a
fallback plan for the position. I'm betting 2009 is the year Mora plays like
he's 37 years old.


Sully: Lowell's a pro and will handle the situation accordingly. So long as
his fielding does not drop off, he will be a very valuable player once again.



Shortstop

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bartlett, J. .274 .332 .366 .698
Lowrie, J. .265 .346 .410 .756
Jeter, D. .299 .367 .419 .786
McDonald, J. .231 .278 .312 .590
Izturis, C. .259 .310 .325 .635


Pete: It speaks poorly of the shortstops in this division that Derek Jeter is
still the guy you want over any of the rest of them. It's amazing how the Red
Sox can't find a decent answer there. I'd like to point out that I once
selected John McDonald to an American Legion All-Star team in Connecticut and
gave him a Norwich Bulletin t-shirt.


Marc: Cesar Izturis should impress defensively in Baltimore but his offense
will be abysmal. If Jed Lowrie wrestles the full-time job away from Lugo in
Boston than the club will likely be better off offensively, but I like Lowrie
a lot as a super-sub. The position is extremely weak offensively in Toronto
with McDonald and Marco Scutaro, who is going to start regressing soon at the
age of 33. It's hard to believe Toronto used No. 1 draft picks on college
shortstops in 2002 and 2003 and never did end up with a long-term solution at
the position.


Sully: With defense factored, will Lowrie be better than Jeter this season?



Left Field

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Crawford, C. .291 .334 .433 .767
Bay, J. .272 .364 .487 .851
Damon, J. .279 .352 .423 .775
Lind, A. .281 .330 .458 .788
Pie, F. .263 .317 .410 .727


Pete: Johnny Damon is actually a pretty good defensive left field (well, not
including throws). I think we're going to see some serious regression at the
plate, however. His legs are not what they once were.


Marc: Generally speaking, I am really looking forward to watching the young
outfield in Baltimore play, with Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis
included. Pie was a steal from Chicago and, if motivated, could be just as
good as the other two players. Toronto could have the AL Rookie of the Year
with Snider in left, who will share the position (and DH) with Adam Lind,
another good, young player.


Sully: Out of Jason Bay and Carl Crawford, I will be interested to see who
ends up as the better player at the end of the season according to Fangraphs.
Bay has the good stick but can't field, Crawford's offense leaves a bit to be
desired but can track anything down in left.



Center Field

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Upton, B. .279 .376 .432 .808
Ellsbury, J. .293 .350 .415 .765
Gardner, B. .260 .342 .359 .701
Wells, V. .274 .329 .457 .786
Jones, A. .274 .324 .420 .744


Pete: Pecota has B.J. Upton not being so special. I can't argue against the
math, but I do think what he did in the postseason could vault him forward.
You could see him mature every day in October. If Brett Gardner can somehow
get a .360 OBP, he'll change the way the Yankees look. But his swing might be
too big for that.


Marc: I am a big Jacoby Ellsbury fan. He's going to really step up his game
this season. The position in New York is thin... hmm, just like third base.
There are a lot of cracks in the roster considering the payroll. Those
pitchers better stay healthy. Count me as someone who thinks Upton is going
to breakout in a big way this season.


Sully: We have consensus on Upton. I think he goes off in '09.



Right Field

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Joyce, M. .247 .324 .448 .772
Drew, J. .270 .381 .460 .841
Nady, X. .278 .332 .462 .794
Rios, A. .285 .338 .459 .797
Markakis, N. .297 .378 .477 .855


Pete: J.D. Drew showed up hurt, which saves time. I'm surprised Brian Cashman
didn't trade Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady. That probably speaks to Hideki
Matsui's knees. I'll trust Tampa that Matt Joyce will help them.


Marc: I am not sold on Joyce, and his injury definitely hurts his chances of
making the Opening Day roster in Tampa. Can Alex Rios finally breakout
offensively (and consistently)? Please?


Sully: I laughed when I saw Pete and Marc's comments because I can't figure
out why you hand Joyce a starting gig on a championship aspirant club.



Designated Hitter

AVG OBP SLG OPS
Burrell, P. .245 .368 .464 .832
Ortiz, D. .281 .387 .543 .930 <(￣︶￣)>
Matsui, H. .279 .358 .442 .800
Snider, T. .262 .330 .462 .792
Scott, L. .261 .343 .477 .820


Pete: Tampa had a lot of good choices and went with Burrell. Bobby Abreu
would have been a good fit. I think Hideki Matsui is close to finished. He
can barely run. It's also hard to know what to make of David Ortiz given his
health in recent years.


Marc: Heath is definitely the big area of concern with the big two: Ortiz and
Matsui. Will Aubrey Huff's big season of a year ago continue? I doubt it. It
will be interesting to see how Burrell does in the AL with Tampa.


Sully: Give me the under on Papi and the over on Luke Scott.



Starting Pitching

W-L K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Shields, J. 13-9 7.23 1.89 1.18 3.70
Kazmir, S. 10-8 9.75 3.86 1.30 3.68
Garza, M. 10-9 6.95 3.12 1.32 3.92
Price, D. 3-4 6.82 3.55 1.40 4.35
Sonnanstine, A. 11-9 6.31 1.94 1.26 4.07

W-L K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Beckett, J. 13-8 8.25 2.32 1.21 3.68
Matsuzaka, D. 12-7 8.35 3.96 1.33 3.75
Lester, J. 11-8 6.85 3.45 1.37 4.00
Wakefield, T. 9-8 5.70 3.23 1.35 4.32
Penny, B. 8-7 5.76 3.27 1.44 4.30

W-L K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Sabathia, C. 15-9 8.02 2.20 1.19 3.37
Burnett, A. 13-9 8.77 3.45 1.31 3.81
Wang, C. 11-6 4.63 2.79 1.37 3.96
Pettitte, A. 11-10 6.59 2.69 1.41 4.31
Chamberlain, J. 6-3 9.60 3.36 1.24 3.25

W-L K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Halladay, R. 15-12 6.54 1.76 1.17 3.37
Litsch, J. 10-10 5.40 2.36 1.29 4.07
Purcey, D. 6-7 7.27 3.63 1.40 4.52
Richmond, S. 5-6 6.43 2.89 1.39 4.57
Janssen, C. 3-3 5.82 2.59 1.31 3.85

W-L K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Guthrie, J. 9-9 5.98 2.97 1.33 4.09
Uehara, K. ---------------
Waters, M. 6-8 5.51 4.17 1.55 5.12
Hill, R. 6-6 7.68 4.07 1.38 4.25
Liz, R. 6-7 7.34 5.05 1.58 5.30


Pete: The Yankees could be overwhelming and they have Phil Hughes in reserve.
Boston took too many chances. Tampa was freakishly healthy last season.


Marc: New York is the beast in the starting pitching department, obviously. I
can't see the A.J. Burnett deal working out in the end; he'll start strong
and be dominant early, but the history of inconsistencies and injuries is
sure to come back and bite. Boston's depth at starting pitcher is impressive.


Sully: Sort of like San Francisco's offense heading into last season, I am
nothing short of astounded at how bad Baltimore's pitching looks. Of course
San Fran wasn't the historically bad lineup I thought they would be so maybe
there is hope for that O's staff.



Relief Pitching

K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Percival, T. 7.42 4.06 1.29 3.94
Wheeler, D. 7.81 3.03 1.23 3.63
Balfour, G. 10.82 2.56 1.23 3.12

K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Papelbon, J. 9.70 1.99 1.02 2.49
Okajima, H. 8.08 3.08 1.22 3.36
Masterson, J. 7.60 3.76 1.33 3.75

K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Rivera, M. 8.33 1.71 1.04 2.67
Marte, D. 8.85 3.87 1.32 3.65
Bruney, B. 8.24 5.21 1.46 4.09

K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Ryan, B. 9.09 3.85 1.27 3.45
Downs, S. 7.36 3.47 1.30 3.54
League, B. 6.33 3.48 1.39 4.02

K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
Sherrill, G 9.17 4.45 1.35 3.76
Ray, C. 7.98 3.54 1.27 3.77
Johnson, J. 6.10 3.62 1.44 4.32


Pete: The Red Sox made some smart moves here. Don't sleep on Brian Bruney of
the Yankees. He's not as colorful as Joba Chamberlain but he could be every
bit as effective.


Marc: Mariano Rivera is a robot. I am convinced of that; he'll still be
dominating the AL East in 15 years. Baltimore will be helped by getting Chris
Ray back (Tommy John surgery). The closer role could be a weak spot in Tampa,
as well as Toronto - if B.J. Ryan cannot regain some consistency.


Sully: Personally, I think Bruney's walk numbers will plague him. Justin
Masterson will be one to watch this year.



Bench


Pete: The Yankees treat the bench like an ashtray in a $100,000 car. It's
there but they really don't pay much attention to it.


Marc: New York's bench will be almost non-existent. The Rays club has the
best depth on the bench, with the likes of Ben Zobrist, Willy Aybar, Gabe
Gross, etc. Toronto should have a lot of versatility. The Kevin Millar
addition is growing on me, as long as it doesn't take at-bats away from Adam
Lind and Travis Snider.


Sully: Rocco Baldelli, Josh Bard, Julio Lugo....Boston does a nice bench.



Who are the awards candidates from the AL East?


Pete:

MVP: Upton

Cy Young: Matsuzaka

Rookie: Price


Marc: I like Snider as the AL RoY (followed by David Price). C.C. has to be
given mention as a Cy Young candidate, as does Halladay - although he'll get
forgotten about by a lot of people when Toronto has a terrible season. AL MVP
sleeper: Nick Markakis.


Sully: Sabathia for the Cy, Teixeira for MVP, Price for ROY.



Any surprises this year?


Pete: I think the Blue Jays could lose 90 games They have a chance to be
dreadful.


Marc: If the Yankees continue to have injury woes, the depth is not there to
patch the holes. Even with the starting rotation, I can see them finishing
third in the division... but more likely they'll be in second place.


Sully: I am with Pete. Toronto is going to be horrendous.



Predictions?


Pete:

1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays


Marc:

1. Boston
2. New York
3. Tampa
4. Baltimore
5. Toronto


Sully: As I get ready to head over to the Red Sox-Marlins game, is it any
surprise that I am with Marc here?






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