2010s十大交易案 Part7 - 美國職棒

這是2010s 十大交易案第七集，翻譯Mike Petriello的外電。

來源：https://www.mlb.com/news/the-10-biggest-mlb-trades-of-the-2010s

(7) Milwaukee adds a Most Valuable Player
Jan. 25, 2018: Marlins trade OF Christian Yelich to Brewers for OF Lewis Brins
on, OF Monte Harrison, IF Isan Diaz and P Jordan Yamamoto
What even?
The Marlins were in complete let's-blow-it-all-up mode, having already traded
Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna during the winter of 2017-18,
and trading Yelich was the obvious end point of the plan. (Especially because
he and his agent had made their displeasure at the situation clear.) At the ti
me, he was regarded as a solid player (121 OPS+ in parts of five seasons) who
hadn't tapped into the power potential (59 homers at that time) his underlying
skills suggested. He was also on a massively team-friendly contract, one that
owed him only $44.5 million over the next four seasons, plus a 2022 team opti
on for $15 million.
The Brewers were coming off an 85-77 second-place season, and when they added
Yelich, it was one of the biggest days in team history, seeing as how they als
o signed Lorenzo Cain to a five-year free-agent contract the same day.

7.Christian Yelich交易案
釀酒人獲得：Christian Yelich
馬林魚獲得：Lewis Brinson、Monte Harrison、Isan Diaz、Jordon Yamamoto
(1)交易發生背景
2017-18休賽季時，邁阿密馬林魚正在進行大拍賣活動中。他們已經賣掉了D.Gordon、G.S
tanton和M.Ozuna，下一個目標自然就是明星外野手Christian Yelich。
當時的Yelich是一名守備優秀的長槍，5年生涯中擁有通算121的OPS+和18.4的WAR，還手
握1座銀棒獎和一座金手套。不過他在五年間一共只有59隻全壘打，長打能力稍嫌不足。
此外，Yelich的合約對球隊相當友善，4年才44.5M，還外帶2022年15M的球隊選擇權。
另一方面，釀酒人隊在2017年擁有85-77還算不錯的戰績，因此他們決定在休賽季大顯身
手。除了換來Yelich，他們還以5年80M簽下外野手Lorenzo Cain，準備爭搶國聯中區第一
的位置。

Were the takes good or bad?
Milwaukee adding two huge outfield stars on the same day pretty clearly garne
red positive reviews, but there was a lot to like about this for Miami, too. R
otoworld's Christopher Crawford, speaking to CBS, said, "It's really a win-win
deal," noting that the Marlins "did well here" in the prospect return.

(2)當時交易評價
當時普遍認為交易雙方都獲得了不錯的回報。釀酒人在一天之內完成外野佈局的操作贏得
一些好評，不過馬林魚成功收穫一批優秀新秀的操作更受人讚賞。
馬林魚獲得的新秀中，Lewis Brinson是評價最高的。身為BA百大18，釀酒人農場No.1，B
rinson擁有五拍子的潛力，被認為能成為單季20-20，並且擁有頂尖守備的中外野手；Mon
te Harrison在BA排名75，是一名防守優異，Power不錯但選球有待加強的中外野手；Isan
Diaz排名BA釀酒人No.6，是長打能力不錯的二壘手。RotoWorld的作家Christopher Craw
ford就說「這是筆雙贏的交易，不過馬林魚的確獲得不錯的新秀回報」

And then what happened?
Yelich bashed 36 homers in 2018, winning the NL MVP Award. He hit 44 more in '
19, and he might have won another MVP if he hadn't been injured in September.
Over the last two years, he's been the most valuable player in the National Le
ague, and he's pretty clearly a top-five superstar in baseball. Though he swea
rs he wasn't worried about his launch angle, it's hard to not notice that afte
r years of hearing about how he hit too many hard ground balls, his grounder r
ate dropped from around 60% with Miami to 52% in 2018 and 44% in '19. He only
just turned 28 earlier this month, and he's tied to Milwaukee for three more s
easons.
The jury is still out for Miami, though it's not looking great. Brinson has hi
t .189/.238/.294 in two seasons with Miami, striking out 30% of the time. Harr
ison struck out 215 times in Double-A in 2018, and he was a league-average bat
at Triple-A in '19. Diaz mashed in Triple-A (.305/.395/.578 in 2019) and is i
n line for serious Miami time in 2020, though he hit only .173/.259/.307 in 20
1 plate appearances in the bigs. Yamamoto struck out 82 in 78 2/3 innings in h
is rookie year.

(3)交易後續影響：
相信之後的故事大家都知道了。生涯前五年只打出59轟的Yelich在轉隊第一年就轟出比前
一年多二倍的36支全壘打，隔年更狂轟44發，打出7.8WAR，毫無疑問的收下國聯最有價值
球員的殊榮。他2020年雖然陷入低潮，仍然有高於聯盟平均的117WRC+，1.0WAR的產出。
釀酒人還擁有6年的控制權，若是明年能調整好的話，他仍然會是聯盟前五名的頂尖球星
。
相反地，馬林魚獲得的新秀看起來就不怎麼樣了。Brinson在大聯盟表現淒慘無比，18-19
年合計只打出189/238/294的三圍，三振率還高達30%。20年表現稍好，但也只有74WRC+和
26.7%三振率，三年通算WAR是可怕的-2.7；Harrison在18年2A三振率高達37%，19年升上3
A時只打出97WRC+聯盟平均的成績，三振率還高達30%。20年他升上大聯盟之後51PA中三圍
是170/235/255，顯然尚未適應高階的投手；Diaz在19年3A表現非常精彩，不過大聯盟201
PA中三圍只有173/259/307，54WRC+的成績，20年則因疫情整年退出。Yamamoto是這包最
早在大聯盟做出貢獻的，19年剛上大聯盟表現相當精彩，連續兩場7局無失分。不過他馬
上就被打回原型，20年防禦率高達18.26，日前也被交易至大都會隊。

Would each team do it again?
The Brewers couldn't say "yes" to this quickly enough. The Marlins would certa
inly either keep Yelich or find a better return.

(4)如果可以回到過去，交易雙方會反悔嗎？
Christian Yelich的進化讓釀酒人隊毫無疑問的成為這筆交易案的贏家，他們當然會同意
；馬林魚得到的新秀表現都不是太理想，他們若能重來一次的話肯定會試著獲取更優秀的
報酬的。

--