2010-2019 十大交易案 part 4 - 美國職棒

這是2010年代十大交易案的第四集，也是原文介紹中發生時間最晚的。相信廣大
板友們對這個交易並不陌生。

原文：https://www.mlb.com/news/the-10-biggest-mlb-trades-of-the-2010s

前情提要

經歷四年的強盛後，老虎在2015年中時已經是強弩之末，截至7/15時已經落後美
中龍頭皇家9場，農場也被被總經理Dave Dombrowski的操作燒光。老虎毅然決然開始重建
，在七月交易大限前交易掉David Price、外野手Yoenis Cespedes與後援Joakim Soria，
換來了一票天賦滿滿的年輕球員，包括三個優秀的投手新秀：Daniel Norris、Matthew
Boyd與Michael Fulmer，後者也在2016年繳出驚人表現獲得ROY的殊榮。時間來到2017年
的七月，drama開始了...

4. Justin Verlander's incredible second act
Aug. 31, 2017: Tigers trade P Justin Verlander and OF Juan Ramirez to Astros
for OF Daz Cameron, P Franklin Perez and C Jake Rogers

What even?
The Tigers hadn't traded Verlander at the July 31 Trade Deadline, and it sure
seemed like they hadn't at the Aug. 31 deadline either, until news broke that
he'd waived his no-trade clause to agree to a deal with just seconds to spare
before midnight ET. On their way to a 98-loss season, and with longtime team
owner Mike Ilitch having died earlier in the year, the Tigers began a
full-fledged rebuild that they're still deep in the weeds of. In the span of
six weeks, they dealt J.D. Martinez, Alex Avila, Justin Wilson, Justin Upton
and Verlander. To date, they have received zero regular Major Leaguers in
return, though this trio was well-regarded at the time, and others like Isaac
Paredes are nearing.

The pre-Gerrit Cole Astros, meanwhile, who had gone 11-17 in August, needed a
rotation boost to help a group that was led by Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock
and a just OK Dallas Keuchel. It's safe to say Verlander filled that need.

4. Justin Verlander 交易案
太空人得到：Justin Verlander、Juan Ramirez
老虎得到：Daz Cameron、Franklin Perez、Jake Rogers

(1)交易發生背景
老虎在2017年七月已經陸續交易走J.D. Martinez、Alex Avila、Justin Wilson
、Justin Upton等主力球員，但已經連續第二年投出回春表現的虎王Verlander卻直至八
月底還留在陣中。在交易截止日前的前幾秒鐘，Verlander終於願意放棄不得交易條款，同
意球團把他交易至太空人。甩掉Verlander殘餘一年半的大合約後，老虎的清倉大拍賣也宣
告完成。雖然這一年他們沒有換到任何大聯盟球員，但還是收穫滿滿，例如跟小熊換來的
Isaac Peredes就展現極高的完成度。

2017年的太空人尚未獲得強投Gerrit Cole，他們的輪值需要幫手，Keuchel自從
賽揚球季後表現逐漸衰退，Morton的年紀讓人擔心下半季會顯現出疲軟，Peacock跟
McCullers都還太年輕，而且他們當時都受到大小傷勢的困擾。
Keuchel也在8/1號對球團沒有進行大補強表示失望。他們在八月的戰績只有11勝
17敗，總管Jeff Luhnow終於在八月底換到Verlander，補上了先發輪值的空缺。

Were the takes good or bad?
Fair, mostly. "The Astros paid a hefty price to upgrade right now because
they were concerned about what they could throw in the postseason," wrote
Dave Cameron. ESPN's Keith Law noted that "the Tigers land[ed] a couple of
real prospects." The Tigers reportedly paid about $16 million of the $56
million that Verlander was still owed.

Here's a bad take:

"Good on Tigers for making some tough choices. Nice return for JV, & 34 year
old P generally don't *increase* value. Like it for both sides."
--------Mike Petriello on Twitter, 9:11 PM - Sep 1, 2017.

(2)當時交易的評價

Verlander身上還有一年半的合約，總值高達56M，老虎會幫忙吃16M。也就是說
太空人用三個評價不錯的新秀為代價，換到了一個平均年薪20M的賽揚強投。Franklin
Perez是這個包裹裡評價最高的，19歲的他有平均92-94mph的球速、評價plus的曲球以及
很有潛力的變速球，Perez當時已經在2A投出不錯表現，上大聯盟的日子指日可待；外野
新秀Daz Cameron當季在1A繳出突破性的表現（出賽120場，打擊三圍.271/.349/.466，另
外有14支全壘打與32次盜壘）；捕手新秀Jake Rogers則是一個防守優異的捕手。

大多數的觀點認為這個價碼滿公平的，棒球分析專家Dave Cameron寫道：「太空
人擔心他們原先的先發輪值無法應付季後賽那種高張力的比賽，於是他們付出了可觀的代
價進行補強。」Kieth Law也說：「老虎拿到了兩個真貨（應該是指Perez跟Cameron），
而Mike Petriello也推文表示：「賣掉虎王是一個相當艱難的選擇，但這是正確的決定。
Verladner已經34歲了，大多投手在在這個年齡會開始衰退，我們可以說Verlander未來的
交易價值不會再提升了。我喜歡這個交易。」

後來發生的事完全打臉了當時信心滿滿的Petriello。

And then what happened?
Verlander, the 34-year-old pitcher, increased his value.

The Astros, as you may have heard, are really good at making pitchers better,
although it's somewhat overstated here. After an injury-plagued 2014-15 that
looked like it might have been the beginning of the end for the longtime ace,
Verlander finished second in the AL Cy Young voting in 2016 and allowed only
19 earned runs in his final 11 Detroit starts. He was already pitching well,
but he took it to another level in Houston, taking advantage of the Astros'
next-level technology. And he's finished second and first, respectively, in
the last two AL Cy Young races, as well as posting a 2.21 ERA in 36 2/3
innings in the 2017 postseason.

It hasn't worked out so well for Detroit. Cameron has stalled out at
Triple-A, hitting only .214/.321/.370 there over the last two years. Perez
has struggled to stay healthy and threw only 7 2/3 Minor League innings in
2019. Rogers made it to the bigs in '19, but he hit a mere .125/.222/.259 in
128 plate appearances and may profile as a defense-first backup.

(3)交易後續影響

Verlander以34歲的高齡，站上了另一個巔峰。

大家都知道，太空人是神奇的投手再生工廠。Verlander雖然在2014-2015賽季表
不佳，許多人都認為JV這個一代巨投即將殞落。結果2016年Verlander排除傷病困擾後大
回春，賽季最後11場出賽只丟了19個責失分，最後在賽揚獎票選獲得第二名。但他被交易
後採納了太空人數據分析團隊的建議，將自己的表現提升至另一個級別，2017年九月主投
五場全勝，主投34局就投出了43個三振，ERA低到只有1.06，該年季後賽V中年更展現極高
的壓制力，先發六場總共投了36.2局，ERA只有2.21，最後也幫助太空人拿下隊史唯一一枚
冠軍戒指。2018年Verlander的成績還是非常頂尖，去年年初與太空人簽下2年總值66M的延
長合約，隨後就拿下生涯第二座賽揚獎。

另一方面，老虎隊的運氣就不怎麼好了。Cameron在3A大撞牆，這兩年打擊三圍
只有.214/.321/.370；Perez在去年三月年拉傷了背闊肌，2019年只在小聯盟投了7.2局，
登上大聯盟之日遙遙無期；Rogers在去年完成MLB首秀，但他在128個打席中打擊三圍只有
.123/.222/.259，WRC+也只有27，即使能站穩大聯盟，Rogers大概也就是個防守好的二號
捕手。

下面補充Verlander自從2011怪物賽季後逐年成績變化。今天因為HOF票選的新聞
，有板友提到fWAR跟bWAR在評價投手貢獻上有極大差距，主要是fWAR採計FIP，Fangraphs
排除掉場內守備等因素，著重在三振、保送和全壘打的影響；而bWAR則是採計ERA，
Baseball Reference 比較重視投手交出的「傳統帳面表現」。不同於前幾集只用fWAR檢視
球員成績，今天我也把bWAR加進來。

IP ERA FIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 fWAR bWAR
2011 251.0 2.40 2.99 8.96 2.04 0.86 6.5 8.6
2012 238.1 2.64 2.94 9.03 2.27 0.72 6.9 8.1
2013 218.1 3.46 3.28 8.95 3.09 0.78 4.8 4.3
2014 206.0 4.54 3.74 6.95 2.84 0.79 3.2 0.9
2015 133.1 3.38 3.49 7.63 2.16 0.88 3.1 2.3
2016 227.2 3.04 3.48 10.04 2.25 1.19 5.4 7.2
2017 206.0 3.36 3.84 9.57 3.15 1.18 4.1 6.4
2018 214.0 2.52 2.78 12.20 1.56 1.18 6.6 6.2
2019 223.0 2.58 3.27 12.11 1.70 1.45 6.4 7.8

如果只看bWAR，2014-2015的虎王表現真的大幅衰退，2016年反而像個outlier，
但是fWAR卻沒有那麼大的落差。我支持在評斷投手貢獻時不要只拿其中一個來比較，以免
太過偏頗。

Would each team do it again?
Of course the Astros would. If the Tigers had known none of the prospects
would look good in two years, they certainly wouldn't have, though it's worth
wondering if the issue was in the players they acquired or the ability of
their farm system to help them improve.

(4)如果可以回到過去，交易雙方會反悔嗎？

太空人拿到了隊史首冠，他們當然不會後悔；如果老虎能事先預料到他們換來的
三個新秀在未來兩年會全數撞牆，他們絕對會喊卡。不過無法確定的是：到底是Cameron
、Perez、Rogers本身能力有問題，還是老虎隊不會養新秀導致這筆交易的失敗呢？


To be continued......


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