2009 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners - 美國職棒

If luck truly is the residue of design, Bill Bavasi, Buzzie's Other
Idiot Son, truly created a Dionysian revel of misfortune in 2008.
The Mariners' roster moves over the last year were made based on
the false impression that the Mariners were a solid playoff team,
in contention for a playoff run. They weren't and the assumptions
weren't just wrong on the team level, but the individual level as well.
So, what made up the Mulligan stew of wishcasting and stupidity? Let us
count the ways.

- There was no need to have a Plan B for either Jose Vidro or
Richie Sexson.Sure, Sexson's career numbers were dropping faster
than the Dow and Vidro had become virtually immobile in the field
and swung a bat like the doughnutswere still on the end, but it'll
all be OK.

After Sexson and Vidro were terrible, the Mariners demonstrated
their lack of planning by the spectacle of Miguel Cairo getting
the most 1B starts after Sexson was mercifully dumped. As for
designated hitter, the Mariners were reduced to randomly dropping
players there, from their top catching prospect, blocked by a
ridiculous decision to sign Johjima for 3 more years, to middle
infielders ranging from Jose Lopez to Tug Hulett.

- Injury-prone Erik Bedard is totally never going to be injured
again and as for the rest of the rotation, we'll hind under a
pile of coats and it will just somehow work out.

It didn't. King Felix was very good and rewarded with a 9-11
record for his efforts. Bedard was good when he actually pitched
and the media turned against him as if it was his fault that he's
fragile and the Mariners placed unrealistic expectations on his
dependability. If I trade my grocery money for a plasma TV, it's
not Best Buy's fault when I'm eating ramen noodles for a month.

- Betancourt and Lopez are a dynamic middle-infield duo and s
hould join Beltre as players that deserve Gold Gloves and no ground
ball will ever get through the infield!

The Mariners feel that Hispanic Infielders + Poor Plate Approach
= Awesome Defense.

We could go on and on. From top to bottom, Bavasi did a poor
evaluation of the team's strengths, weaknesses, needs, and
inveitably made poor decision after poor decision.Jack Zduriencik
deserves a very long leash as he's been left with a very tall order.

The Mariners do have some very good offensive prospects, but most aren't
realisticallyready to play in the majors right now and have some major
question in their game to be resolved. I've seen some incredibly optimistic
evaluations of the Mariners on the web (don't worry, not the USS Mariner
gang) that argue that the Mariners will compete in the next couple years
with Halman/Saunders/Triunfel/Wilson all being starters, Ichiro having
no decline, and Hernandez/Bedard/Morrow becoming Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine.
A few of these things will happen, but not all of them, and the Mariners
need to proceed from here with realistic goals for a change.


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CATCHERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Jeff Clement* c 25 .253 .330 .445 127 443 58 112 26 1 19 68 45 96 0 1 106 Fr
Adam Moore c 25 .267 .321 .413 122 465 46 124 24 1 14 61 31 95 0 1 96 Fr

FAIR
Rob Johnson c 25 .266 .316 .356 123 455 50 121 23 0 6 47 32 68 6 5 81 Av
Jamie Burke c 37 .275 .324 .353 49 102 13 28 5 0 1 10 6 12 0 1 82 Av

POOR
Kenji Johjima c 33 .251 .296 .362 104 362 31 91 19 0 7 40 15 32 0 1 76 Av

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FIRST BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+RNG

AVERAGE
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Russell Branyan*3b 33 .230 .326 .452 92 239 30 55 11 0 14 42 33 89 3 0 105 Av

POOR
Jose Vidro# dh 34 .273 .336 .373 90 330 39 90 15 0 6 37 32 40 0 0 91 Pr
Michael Morse 3b 27 .267 .317 .387 79 266 29 71 17 0 5 31 18 50 2 1 88 Av
Craig Wilson 1b 32 .225 .319 .388 80 258 32 58 10 1 10 34 25 90 2 1 89 Av
Bryan LaHair* 1b 26 .251 .311 .380 126 466 49 117 24 0 12 57 39 116 0 0 85 Av
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Av
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 Av
Jamie Burke c 37 .275 .324 .353 49 102 13 28 5 0 1 10 6 12 0 1 82 Fr
Shawn Garrett# rf 30 .243 .290 .358 111 419 44 102 19 1 9 46 25 99 5 2 73 Av

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SECOND BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+RNG

AVERAGE
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Jose Lopez 2b 25 .284 .315 .416 155 599 75 170 31 3 14 77 25 72 5 3 95 Av

FAIR
Tug Hulett* ss 26 .248 .322 .366 130 467 65 116 22 3 9 52 49 107 14 5 85 Vg

POOR
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Av
Luis Valbuena* 2b 23 .255 .312 .363 134 482 61 123 20 1 10 54 40 82 17 6 81 Vg
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 Av
Oswaldo Navarro ss 24 .250 .301 .312 124 436 47 109 18 0 3 37 28 83 6 2 65 Av
Carlos Triunfel ss19 .248 .285 .316 105 427 45 106 15 1 4 37 20 55 19 13 62 Av

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THIRD BASEMEN
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+RNG

VERY GOOD
Russell Branyan*3b 33 .230 .326 .452 92 239 30 55 11 0 14 42 33 89 3 0 105 Fr

AVERAGE
Adrian Beltre 3b 30 .264 .320 .449 147 579 78 153 34 2 23 87 45 101 9 3 104 Ex
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FAIR
Michael Morse 3b 27 .267 .317 .387 79 266 29 71 17 0 5 31 18 50 2 1 88 Av

POOR
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Av
Matt Tuiasosopo 3b 23 .244 .311 .364 126 483 68 118 24 2 10 54 40 112 4 2 81 Av
Luis Valbuena* 2b 23 .255 .312 .363 134 482 61 123 20 1 10 54 40 82 17 6 81 Vg
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 Fr
Oswaldo Navarro ss 24 .250 .301 .312 124 436 47 109 18 0 3 37 28 83 6 2 65 Av

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SHORTSTOPS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+RNG

AVERAGE
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Michael Morse 3b 27 .267 .317 .387 79 266 29 71 17 0 5 31 18 50 2 1 88 Fr
Tug Hulett* ss 26 .248 .322 .366 130 467 65 116 22 3 9 52 49 107 14 5 85 Av

FAIR
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Av
Yuniesky Betancourt*ss27 .280 .301.389 157 560 67 157 34 3 7 61 17 48 7 4 84 Fr

POOR
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 Pr
Oswaldo Navarro ss 24 .250 .301 .312 124 436 47 109 18 0 3 37 28 83 6 2 65 Av
Carlos Triunfel ss 19 .248 .285 .316 105 427 45 106 15 1 4 37 20 55 19 13 62 Fr

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CORNER OUTFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF

AVERAGE
Ichiro Suzuki*cf 35 .304 .354 .383 152 648 94 197 21 6 6 68 47 67 35 4 98 Vg
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Raul Ibanez*lf 37 .268 .331 .438 148 575 71 154 35 3 19 83 53 102 0 1 105 Pr
Russell Branyan*3b 33 .230.326 .452 92 239 30 55 11 0 14 42 33 89 3 0 105 Fr Fr

POOR
WladimirBalentien rf24 .240.300.427133 501 66 120 23 1 23 76 44 119 10 5 93AvAv
Michael Morse 3b 27 .267 .317 .387 79 266 29 71 17 0 5 31 18 50 2 1 88 Fr Fr
Craig Wilson 1b 32 .225 .319 .388 80 258 32 58 10 1 10 34 25 90 2 1 89 Pr Pr
Jeremy Reed* cf 28 .268 .315 .383 119 418 52 112 21 3 7 47 28 55 7 4 87 Vg Vg
Bryan LaHair* 1b 26 .251 .311 .380 126 466 49 117 24 0 12 57 39 116 0 0 85Av
Michael Wilson#rf 26 .228 .301 .407 102 369 43 84 16 1 16 54 32 114 6 2 88AvAv
Prentice Redman cf 29 .248 .315 .389 112 411 53 102 20 1 12 53 36 83 6 5 88VgVg
Victor Diaz rf 27 .242 .298 .397 122 451 44 109 22 0 16 60 34 141 5 1 85FrPr
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79VgVg
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 AvAv
Michael Saunders*cf22 .244.303.370 105 422 53 103 18 1 11 51 33 112 21 9 80VgVg
Shawn Garrett# rf 30 .243 .290 .358 111 419 44 102 19 1 9 46 25 99 5 73 Fr Fr
Greg Halman cf 21 .225 .264 .387 123 480 55 108 19 1 19 64 20 138 30 12 72AvAv
Charlton Jimerson cf29 .219.256 .376 97 356 33 78 15 1 13 46 15 134 22 7 67VgVg

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CENTERFIELDERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+RNG

VERY GOOD
Ichiro Suzuki*cf 35 .304.354.383 152 648 94 197 21 6 6 68 47 67 35 4 98 Av

AVERAGE
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Wladimir Balentien rf 24.240.300.427 133 501 66 120 23 1 23 76 44 119 10 5 93 Fr
Jeremy Reed* cf 28 .268 .315 .383 119 418 52 112 21 3 7 47 28 55 7 4 87 Av

FAIR
Prentice Redman cf 29 .248 .315 .389 112 411 53 102 20 1 12 53 36 83 6 5 88 Fr
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Fr

POOR
Michael Saunders*cf 22 .244.303 .370 105 422 53 103 18 1 11 51 33 112 21 9 80 Av
Greg Halman cf 21 .225 .264 .387 123 480 55 108 19 1 19 64 20 138 30 12 72 Av
Charlton Jimerson cf 29 .219 .256 .376 97 356 33 78 15 1 13 46 15 134 22 7 67 Vg

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STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+

TOP THIRD
Erik Bedard* 30 3.33 10 6 23 23 138.0 116 51 13 53 161 128
Felix Hernandez 23 3.77 12 9 32 32 210.0 210 88 16 70 175 113
Brandon Morrow 24 3.99 11 10 29 29 178.0 159 79 20 84 169 107

MIDDLE THIRD
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Jarrod Washburn* 34 4.73 8 11 27 26 158.0 175 83 20 48 92 90

BOTTOM THIRD
Robert Rohrbaugh* 25 5.14 6 9 22 21 119.0 140 68 15 35 67 83
Miguel Batista 38 5.27 6 11 36 23 140.0 159 82 18 72 86 81
Andrew Baldwin 26 5.30 6 11 29 23 158.0 197 93 20 36 73 81
Ryan Feierabend* 23 5.50 4 8 22 22 121.0 150 74 16 35 61 77
Carlos Silva 30 5.56 7 14 28 27 157.0 203 97 22 30 74 77
R.A. Dickey 34 5.65 6 11 29 19 137.0 162 86 22 54 69 75
Sean White 28 5.97 3 8 20 14 95.0 124 63 11 41 34 71
Gaby Hernandez 23 5.98 5 11 24 24 125.0 153 83 22 50 656 71
Justin Thomas* 25 6.15 5 12 31 22 136.0 163 93 22 68 87 69

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RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+

TOP THIRD
J.J. Putz 32 2.64 6 2 57 0 58.0 46 17 4 19 71 162

MIDDLE THIRD
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Sean Green 30 4.14 5 4 65 0 76.0 78 35 2 38 51 103
Roy Corcoran 29 4.26 5 4 60 0 74.0 75 35 3 46 51 100

BOTTOM THIRD
Ryan Rowland-Smith*26 4.41 4 4 47 7 98.0 100 48 12 43 72 97
Mark Lowe 26 4.50 2 2 41 1 50.0 51 25 4 27 42 95
Cesar Jimenez* 24 4.50 2 3 43 1 52.0 56 26 5 18 43 95
Randy Messenger 27 4.94 4 6 59 0 71.0 82 39 7 26 40 86
Marwin Vega 22 5.63 3 7 39 11 96.0 111 60 12 53 42 76
Jake Woods* 27 5.64 3 6 36 8 91.0 107 57 12 43 56 76
Nicholas Hill* 24 5.68 3 5 35 6 76.0 88 48 12 33 38 75
Jared Wells 27 6.16 3 7 47 10 92.0 109 63 13 55 60 69

* - Throws Left

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Player Spotlight - Michael Wilson (RF)
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .228 .301 .407 102 369 43 84 16 1 16 54 32 114 6 2 88

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Joe Borchard, Melvin Nieves

Offense %
STAR 11
AVG 23
REP LV 57

OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0
>140 2 >.375 0 >5 7 >150 0
>120 11 >.350 5
>100 32 >.325 22 2B %
>80 65 >.300 54 >45 0
>60 88 >30 0

BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 3 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 0 >.500 12 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 1 >.450 26 >30 0 >30 0
>.275 6 >.400 53 >20 23 >10 25
>.250 24 >.350 80 >10 84

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Player Spotlight - Ichiro Suzuki (CF)
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .309 .358 .384 152 648 95 200 19 6 6 68 47 66 36 4 100

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Brett Butler, Sam Rice

Offense %
STAR 39
AVG 86
REP LV 100

OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 3 >10 4 >200 38
>140 0 >.375 22 >5 57 >150 100
>120 6 >.350 62
>100 46 >.325 91 2B %
>80 91 >.300 100 >45 0
>60 100 >30 2

BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 1 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 2
>.325 15 >.500 0 >40 0 >50 15
>.300 58 >.450 3 >30 0 >30 74
>.275 88 >.400 25 >20 0 >10 100
>.250 100 >.350 81 >10 14


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Player Spotlight - Felix Hernandez
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.77 12 9 32 32 210 210 88 16 70 175 113

Top Near-Age Comps: Bert Blyleven, Larry Dierker

ERA %
Top 1/3 58
Mid 1/3 31
Bot 1/3 11

ERA+ % BB %
>150 6 <35 4
>140 11 <47 18
>130 20 <58 36
>120 34 <70 50
>110 52 <82 70
>100 69 <93 86
>90 86
>80 96 HR %
>70 100 <16 45
<23 79
K % <30 96
>210 7 <37 100
>187 24
>163 59
>140 88

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Player Spotlight - Erik Bedard
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.33 10 6 23 23 138 116 51 13 53 161 128

Top Near-Age Comps: Hal Newhouser, Bobby Ojeda

ERA %
Top 1/3 72
Mid 1/3 21
Bot 1/3 7

ERA+ % BB %
>150 19 <23 0
>140 27 <31 2
>130 38 <38 11
>120 51 <46 23
>110 67 <54 58
>100 81 <61 79
>90 92
>80 98 HR %
>70 100 <11 27
<15 60
K % <20 84
>138 78 <25 97
>123 91
>107 100
>92 100

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ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Clement 8
Ibanez 5
Beltre 4

OBP >.400

Suzuki 3
Clement 2
Bloomquist 1

SLG >.550

Clement 6
Ibanez 3
Wilson 3

BA >.325

Suzuki 15
Vidro 8
Betancourt 7

2B >45

Ibanez 17
Betancourt 7
Lopez 6

3B >10

Lopez 6
Suzuki 4
Betancourt 1

HR >30

Beltre 18
Balentien 17
Diaz 9

SB >50

Suzuki 15
Halman 5
Saunders 1

ERA+ >140

Putz 74
Bedard 27
Hernandez 12

K/9 >9

Putz 88
Bedard 74
Morrow 34

BB/9 <1.5

Silva 34
Baldwin 16
Feierabend 9

HR/9 <0.7

Green 97
Corcoran 94
Putz 61

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP
for inclusion

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of
performance.Performances have not been allocated to predicted
playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are
unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.ZiPS is projecting
equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being
.280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player
will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take
into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made
a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings
are generally unreported inthe offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having
a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.
More informationis always better than less information and a computer
isn't what should be projectingthe injury status of, for example, a pitcher
with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on
what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008.
Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

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